The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) says Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment moved from a period of intense adjustment in 2024 toward gradual stabilisation in 2025.
In its macroeconomic condition monitor report, the NESG said policy measures implemented between 2023 and 2024, including exchange rate liberalisation, petrol subsidy reforms, monetary tightening, and fiscal restructuring, initially deepened macroeconomic pressures.
“However, recent data indicate that these reforms are beginning to moderate systemic imbalances,” the group said.
“While the direction of change is now positive, the pace remains uneven, and underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in the fiscal and real sectors, continue to constrain a full recovery.”
According to the report, Nigeria’s macroeconomic condition index (MCI) fell to -3.0 points in 2024 — its lowest level in decades — reflecting persistent inflationary pressures, mounting fiscal stress, and sustained exchange rate depreciation.
The deterioration, NESG said, was broad-based across key sectors of the economy.
According to the report, the real sector index (RSI) stood at -3.8 points, the fiscal sector index (FSI) declined sharply to -6.8 points, the external sector index (ESI) was recorded at -1.7 points, while the monetary and financial sector index (MSI) remained stable at +0.4 points.
“The broad deterioration highlights reform-induced adjustment, exposing deep structural weaknesses, pushing macroeconomic conditions to their weakest point in recent history,” the report said.
The group added that 2025 data indicate a measured improvement in macroeconomic conditions, with the MCI moderating from -3.0 points in 2024 to -2.0 points in 2025.
The report showed that the index improved progressively across the four quarters of 2025, rising from -2.9 points in Q1 to -2.0 points by Q4, signalling that macroeconomic pressures are easing gradually.
According to the NESG, the improvement was largely driven by the external sector, where the ESI showed the most significant turnaround.
The group said the index improved from -1.7 points in 2024 to positive turning by Q3 2025 at +0.3 points, before strengthening further to +0.9 points in Q4 2025.
“This reflects increasing exchange rate stability, which helped restore some confidence in the macroeconomic environment, improving capital flow dynamics and current account surplus,” NESG said.
“The real sector also shows modest recovery, with the RSI improving from –3.8 points in 2024 to –2.2 points in 2025. This suggests a gradual easing of inflationary pressures alongside a marginal strengthening in output conditions.
“However, the index remains firmly negative, indicating that productivity constraints and cost pressures continue to limit the pace of recovery.”
In contrast, the report said the fiscal sector remains persistently weak and continues to anchor overall fragility.
The FSI worsened from -6.8 points in 2024 to -7.5 points in the first two quarters of 2025, according to the report, before improving slightly to -7.1 points in the second half of the year.
NESG said the weak fiscal performance reflects sustained debt-service pressures and limited fiscal space, reinforcing the structural nature of Nigeria’s fiscal challenges.
“The monetary and financial sector remains broadly stable, with the MSI holding at +0.4 points in the first and second quarters of the year and strengthening slightly to +0.5 points by Q3-2025 and Q4-2025,” NESG said.
“This stability reflects ongoing efforts to anchor monetary policy credibility and maintain financial system resilience, although high borrowing costs continue to limit transmission to the real economy.”
The group said the 2025 trajectory signals a pivot from acute macroeconomic stress, toward early stabilisation, driven primarily by external sector adjustment and incremental improvements in the real economy.
However, the report warned that deep fiscal vulnerabilities and still-negative real sector conditions suggests that the recovery remains incomplete and fragile.
NESG called for policies aimed at strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation and fiscal efficiency to secure macroeconomic stability, alongside reforms that ease inflationary pressures and boost productivity.