The political atmosphere in Osun State is increasingly becoming combustible, six days to the governorship poll. Fears of possible violence heighten as the state is embroiled in accusations and counter-accusations, arrests and allegations of intimidation.
The stakes are high. The preparations are fever-pitch. And the atmosphere is so charged that observers are in consensus that unless political actors, security agencies and electoral authorities act responsibly, the state may slide into ineluctable violence.
The Osun experience is particularly eliciting high-stake interests because off- cycle governorship elections have increasingly become what political analysts describe as ‘laboratories’ for testing electoral capacity or experiment in the country.
In essence, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) has exploited such off-circle polls in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Edo, Bayelsa, Imo, Kogi and Anambra, which occur outside the general election calendar because of judicial decisions or constitutional timelines, to somewhat test the waters or refine operational strategies before nationwide polls.
Those elections usually afford the commission the opportunity to deploy resources more efficiently, monitor logistics more closely and introduce improvements that would be difficult to implement simultaneously across all 36 states during general elections.
Consequently, therefore, the Osun governorship election offers a critical test case for the electoral umpire to demonstrate lessons garnered from previous elections while preparing for the far more complex 2027 general elections.
It is the state’s electoral history that partly explains why recent developments have generated widespread concern. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, elections in the Osun have frequently been characterised by intense rivalry, legal disputes and narrow victory margins.
Electioneering in the state has also often been punctuated by intense wrangling and somewhat deleterious campaigns, causing anxious moments, as they are happening now.
Besides, unlike many states where incumbency often greeses the hinges of electoral victory, Osun has repeatedly demonstrated that elections remain genuinely competitive. This history makes every governorship election in Osun particularly unpredictable.
The election that brought in Adeleke in 2022, where the then incumbent, Adegboyega Oyetola, was defeated, also generated ‘high voltage’ tensions akin to what is happening now. Several elections have ended in prolonged litigation, while others have witnessed violent clashes between rival supporters.
The current situation is actually akin to a ‘war’ scenario because of the high stakes playing around two of the three main contenders for the Osun gubernatorial ‘throne’ — The incumbent, Ede-born Governor Adeleke of the Accord Party (AP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Ikire-born Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, immediate former Managing Director and Chief Executive of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) under the Tinubu administration.
The other contender in the three-horse race, Ejigbo-born Dr.Najeem Folasayo Salaam, who is flying the African Development Congress (ADC) banners, is ordinarily no pushover with the added advantage of Rauf Aregbesola’s factor but political observers believe that the party, ADC, is too divided in the state for him to go far.
So, even though the situation is too tenuous to be predictable, the real contest for the coveted crown is believed to be between Adeleke, the incumbent, and Oyebamiji, the APC candidate, popularly known as AMBO.
The hubris of incumbency is in wrangle with a brute elan for revenge to lay the thorny track for a titanic political conflict in Osun, sparking worrying signals. In other words, APC, the main opposition party, is spunky to take a pound of flesh by pulling all the stops to deny Adeleke the second term bid, just like he did to his predecessor in the August 2022 election.
The main opposition’s campaign machinery particularly bears all the imprimaturs of Oyetola, the Osun APC leader, who, like a wounded lion, is on a vengeful mission to pay his nemesis in the last poll back in his own coin this time, banking on the proverbial federal might as the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy and his relationship with President Bola Tinubu as an in-law.
Adeleke, who, though is flying the banners of a not-too-sure-footed AP, is himself determined not to be a cheap prey in the hot fray by exploiting his incumbency advantage and his well-heeled political ‘war’ machine.
These are the diametrically opposing forces that are in tango, driving the Osun political conflict and making the whole atmosphere potentially combustible, as noted earlier.
The precariousness of the situation is not lost on the incumbent. He has resorted to some desperate moves to stave off the formidable political cyclone aimed at unseating him. First, he has led the AP to adopt President Tinubu for the 2027 presidential contest.
This is an ostensibly deft move to cut the rug off the feet of Oyetola, whose strongest weapon in his vengeful mission against Adeleke is possible presidential backing. But the minister has told the governor he is wasting his time because adopting Tinubu, according to him, would not secure him the President’s support.
Second, the incumbent’s allegedly desperate resort to a heavy financial ‘war weapon’ to prosecute the election and turn the whole thing into a ‘roforofo’ might have led to the questionable movement of funds in connection with the poll, which incurred the recent hammer of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
The anti-graft commission recently froze the Osun State government’s accounts to prevent what it called the alleged diversion of public funds despite the state’s August 15 governorship election.
The anti-graft agency explained in a statement posted on its official X account penultimate Wednesday, that it had been investigating the Osun State Government since March 2026 over the alleged fraudulent handling of about N11bn Ecology Funds, Intervention Funds and allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee.
The EFCC clarified further: “These ongoing investigations of the state government would not have warranted any placement of Post No Debit order on its accounts but for the precipitate and unwarranted movement of funds from the accounts to different suspicious accounts since August 2, 2026.
“The Commission noticed huge transfers of funds into different corporate entities and had to swiftly halt the trend by freezing the accounts from which such heavy funds are being moved.”
But Adeleke got a reprieve on that score as President Tinubu, who was believed to have caved in to the subterranean lobby by Adeleke’s cousin and Afrobeat star, Davido, and others, by ordering the EFCC to vacate the order freezing the state government’s accounts.
The needless presidential fiat, however, turned out to be a big Public Relations (PR) gaffe and an embarrassing boomerang. Instead of the cheap goodwill intended, the move exposed the proverbial innards of the fowl, as it presupposes that the presidency may have been teleguiding the anti-graft agency and others.
The President expectedly got a serious roasting from the opposition over the interference; more so as EFCC was believed to have acted within the law.
Meanwhile, the buildup days to the poll remains precipitous. Stakeholders are seriously worried by the direction the current campaign season is taking, with the growing number of allegations relating to politically motivated violence. Some politically-motivated killings in the waves of the volatile campaigns are particularly troubling.
Governor Adeleke has repeatedly accused opposition elements of sponsoring attacks against his supporters. According to him, several members of his political camp have allegedly been killed while dozens have sustained injuries in recent times.
He has also alleged that scores of political supporters have been arrested and detained outside Osun State, describing the development as an attempt to weaken his political structure ahead of the election.
On the other hand, security agencies have defended some of their operations, insisting that arrests were based on intelligence and ongoing investigations into electoral offences and criminal activities.
The police have maintained that investigations are being conducted within the law and that no individual is being targeted because of political affiliation. Nevertheless, the conflicting narratives have deepened public suspicion.
It was in an attempt to douse the high tension in the state and avert possible violence in the tension-soaked buildup to this Saturday’s poll that INEC organized a recent stakeholders’ meeting where political parties were expected to discuss measures for ensuring a peaceful election.
But instead of promoting consensus, the meeting reportedly descended into arguments and accusations. The ADC accused members of the APC and AP of disrupting proceedings through intimidation and shouting.
According to the ADC, the atmosphere became so hostile that its representatives could not make oral presentations, and instead, submitted their observations in writing. It is not certain if the meeting achieved anything helpful.
In June, two deaths were recorded. One involved an AP supporter, who was allegedly shot dead in Esa Oke. The other victim was an APC campaigner, who was killed after a truck rammed into a party procession in Ede.
The AP man, Ajayi Aderogba, popularly known as Rogba, was reportedly shot dead by yet-to-be-identified gunmen. His killing sparked protest in the community, which falls within Obokun Local Government Area, and immediately triggered accusations between Accord and APC camps.
Residents said Aderogba was killed while preparations were ongoing for a campaign rally in support of Adeleke’s second-term bid. Two APC members were also reportedly killed, while several others sustained injuries during a coordinated attack in Osogbo by attackers said to be political thugs. The main opposition party alleged that the thugs behind the fatal attacks were linked to the administration and aides of Governor Adeleke.
With the troubling scenarios presaging the poll, let the stakeholders — INEC, security agencies and the governorship candidates — do the needful to ensure a credible, free, fair and violence-free election come Saturday.
Political observers believe that the implications of the Osun governorship election extend beyond the state. The poll is said to have a national appeal, particularly as Nigeria gradually enters the countdown to the 2027 general elections.
For INEC, the poll represents another opportunity to reinforce public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process following the reforms and technological innovations introduced in recent election cycles.
The election is, therefore, not merely a contest among political parties; political analysts regard the poll also as a referendum on the country’s electoral management system and the ability of democratic institutions to deliver credible, transparent and peaceful elections.
It is gratifying that the governorship candidates and political parties in Osun State all agreed to and endorsed a peace accord penultimate Thursday, at the Oasis Event Centre in Osogbo. Organized by the National Peace Committee, the agreement aimed to ensure a free, fair and non-violent election ahead of the poll.
The stakeholders hold it as a duty to be faithful to both the letters and spirit of the peace accord they signed.