A two-week ceasefire agreement was at last brokered between the United States of America and Iran last Wednesday by Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, who has been mediating between the warring parties.
That piece of news was a real humdinger. But it was received with almost incredulity in view of Iran’s uncompromising posture to peace overtures and shocking resilience in the face of the US continuous and blistering bombardments.
However, just hours after US President Donald Trump had announced that a two-week ceasefire had been agreed to halt the war in the Middle East and just as the region was breathing a sigh of relief, Israel suddenly snapped the tendon off the fragile ceasefire deal.
Around 14:00 (11:00 GMT) last Wednesday, the skies over Beirut, capital of Lebanon, darkened and loud, deafening booms followed as Israeli jets conducted a 10-minute blitz across Lebanon. It was a massive, devastating aerial attack that killed at least 303 people and wounded 1,150 others, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) merely gloated over the ruinous effect of the ghoulish strikes, enthusing that within 10 minutes, it had completed the largest coordinated strike across Lebanon since the start of Operation Roaring Lion, the code name for the Israeli operation against Iran.
The IDF said it had targeted over 100 Hezbollah headquarters, military arrays and command-and-control centres in Beirut, Bekaa and southern Lebanon.
Densely populated parts of central Beirut were hit in strikes described by officials as among the heaviest since Hezbollah joined the conflict in early March. And it was not just the traditional Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh that was hit in the Lebanese capital, the city centre was also hit.
The attack was rather injudicious and implausible on the part of Israel because it could set conciliations over the war months back and render the ceasefire deal nugatory.
Local and Western condemnation was expectedly swift and widespread. Tehran was, indeed, non-plussed. Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, denounced what he described as the “blatant violations” by Israel, which, he added, may render negotiations “meaningless”.
Lebanese officials rue that more than 1,700 people have been killed since Israel launched its latest campaign in Lebanon last month. Israel has said its operations are aimed at weakening Hezbollah and achieving what it calls remaining military objectives. Israel continued its attacks the following day, saying it had killed over 70 “terrorists”. It denies targeting civilians. The IDF also said Hezbollah had fired some 30 rockets at northern Israel, with no reports of injuries or damage.
The war began on February 28 when US and Israel swooped on Iran with a volley of sneak joint airstrikes that decapitated the country’s leadership, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,some members of his family and scores of officials.
This prompted immediate drone retaliation from Tehran against US allies in the Gulf, while Hezbollah, an Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, launched retaliatory strikes at Israel, expanding the conflict. In response, Israel began striking Hezbollah and even ordered its troops to occupy large parts of Lebanon.
Now, the whole scenario has regressed into a needless anticlimax. The immediate implication is that the global energy systems that have received a breath of ease at the prospect of the reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz will begin to suffocate again with the strait shut.
World leaders had been thrilled by the two-week ceasefire deal because it was tied to the guarantee by Iran that the strait would be reopened and a safe passage through the corridor would be allowed. But Iranian state media reported that it remained closed following the continued Israeli attacks against Hezbollah.
The ceasefire agreement has been mired in confusion. While Iran listed the complete cessation of Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah in its 10-point agenda for peace, Israel and US said the ceasefire covered only the conflict involving them and Iran.
While uncertainty pervades the status of the ceasefire deal as it affects the Strait of Hormuz, the global impact remains devastating. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has triggered a major global energy crisis, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, leading to soaring prices, supply shortages, and severe economic impacts across Asia and Europe. The disruption has triggered panic buying, forced energy rationing in some countries, and caused widespread disruptions in fertilizer production and related industries.
Bounded to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the corridor, only about 50km (31 miles) wide at its entrance and exit, and about 33km wide at its narrowest point, connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea.
The strait is deep enough for the world’s biggest crude oil tankers, and is used by major Middle Eastern oil and LNG producers, as well as their customers. In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is nearly $600bn (£447bn) worth of energy trade per year.
The oil comes not only from Iran but other Gulf states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. About 20% of global LNG is also shipped through the strait, mostly from Qatar. In 2024, it exported about 9.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG through the strait, and the UAE about 0.7 Bcf/d, according to the US government.
Hormuz is also a crucial route for exports of fertiliser from the Middle East, where natural gas is used heavily in the production process. About one-third of the world’s fertiliser trade normally passes through the strait. The strait is also a vital channel for imports to the Middle East, including food, medicines and technological supplies.
About 3,000 ships usually sail through the strait each month but this dramatically decreased during recent hostilities, with Iran threatening to attack tankers and other ships. United Nations rules allow countries to exercise control of territorial seas up to 12 nautical miles (13.8 miles) from their coastline.
At the narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz and its shipping lanes lie entirely within Iran and Oman’s territorial waters. Iranian drones, missiles, fast attack boats and potentially mines presented a serious challenge to boats seeking to travel through the waterway.
As of 2 April, non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran said at least 24 commercial vessels had been hit, plus three near misses. Gulf countries, including Iran, rely heavily on energy exports for their income. Disruption in the strait has also hit Asia hard, with China alone estimated to buy around 90% of the oil that Iran exports to the global market.
In Asia, the fuel crisis continues to impact daily life. Governments have ordered employees to work from home, cut the working week, declared national holidays and closed universities early in order to conserve their supplies.
For Nigeria, the Middle East crisis, which has driven up global oil prices, has created a dual impact: potential revenue gains alongside severe domestic economic strain. Fuel prices have surged by over 25%, causing high inflation and transport costs due to reliance on imports, while local refinery efforts, especially Dangote refinery, the behemoth that has been a big plus for the country, struggle with input costs.
Retail petrol prices have increased sharply, some over 25%, as global price spikes increase import/freight costs, hitting over ₦1,361 per litre in many areas, up from roughly ₦870.
High fuel prices have caused steep rises in transportation and costs of goods, creating severe inflationary pressure on households. The risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has also created market anxiety and raised import bills.
Despite higher crude prices, Nigerian upstream producers have reportedly failed to supply enough crude to local refineries, forcing a reliance on expensive foreign exchange to pay for imports.
Nigeria is expected to benefit from higher oil earnings, but the benefits are paradoxically dampened by the need to pay more for imported refined products, making it a mixed scenario.
Like we have always admonished, the crisis highlights the crucial need for Nigeria to improve its domestic refining capacity to break the cycle of dependence on imported fuel and insulate the economy from global instability.
In the meantime, it is high time the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, moderated his proclivity for indecorous military adventurism. His near-infantile war mongering plunged the world into this mesh that has upended global energy systems and economies, because he pressured US into the joint strikes of February 28 against Iran, in the first place.
Israel’s latest strikes against Lebanon were certainly imprudent. It ought to, in the interest of global peace, respect the two-week ceasefire deal, a window that could have given the global energy industry a breather through the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump too should curb his servile attitude towards its ally, Israel. It is befuddling that the US President did not chide Israel for its continuous attacks against Lebanon in spite of the ceasefire. Tolerating Israel’s egregious tendencies is not a plus to world peace.
It is, however, reassuring that Netanyahu has resolved to open direct talks with Lebanon over his military campaign against the Iran-backed Shiite militia, Hezbollah, a decision the latter also welcomes.
It is also laudable that the Pakistani PM is continuing with his mediation in the US-Iran conflict. There is no substitute for peace. Every war, however fierce, fizzles out after historic handshakes across the table of conciliation.
In the final analysis, let the Security Council of the United Nations wake up from lethargy, revive its creaky conflict resolution mechanism and resolve the Middle East war.