The federal executive council (FEC) has endorsed the 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), which outlines Nigeria’s economic projections, revenue expectations, and spending priorities for the next three years.
Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, briefed journalists after Wednesday’s council meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu.
He explained that the MTEF was jointly presented by the budget office of the federation and his ministry.
Bagudu noted that while the council adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, fiscal planning is being guided by a more cautious estimate of 1.8 million bpd.
He added that oil price assumptions were set at $64 per barrel, with an exchange rate benchmark of N1,512/$ for the budget year.
The minister said the exchange rate projection accounts for 2026 being the year before a general election, adding that all assumptions were based on extensive macroeconomic and fiscal assessments conducted by the budget office and its partner institutions.
He further disclosed that inflation is expected to average 18 percent in 2026.
According to Bagudu, total revenue accruing to the federation in 2026 is estimated at N50.74 trillion, to be shared by the three tiers of government.
“From this projection, the federal government is expected to receive N22.6 trillion, states N16.3 trillion, and local governments N11.85 trillion,” he said.
He added that when all federal revenue sources are consolidated — including N4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises — total federal revenue for 2026 is projected at N34.33 trillion, representing a N6.55 trillion or 16 percent decline from the 2025 budget estimate.
Statutory transfers are projected to total around N3 trillion, while debt servicing is estimated at N10.91 trillion.
Non-debt recurrent expenditure, which covers personnel and overhead costs, is projected at N15.27 trillion. The fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, amounting to 3.61 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).
NIGERIA PROJECTS N690 TRILLION NOMINAL GDP IN 2026
The MTEF forecasts nominal GDP of more than N690 trillion in 2026, rising to N890.6 trillion by 2028, with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.6 percent in 2026.
Non-oil GDP is anticipated to expand from N550.7 trillion in 2026 to N871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is expected to increase from N557.4 trillion to N893.5 trillion within the same period.
Bagudu said the president believes that with macroeconomic stability beginning to take hold, consistent reforms and full implementation of the MTEF will position Nigeria for stronger growth in the next three years.
He added that the FEC also considered inputs from various ministers before approving the medium-term fiscal expenditure ceiling (MFTEC), an essential guideline aimed at regulating government spending and strengthening fiscal discipline.