The federal government has warned that 14,118 communities across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) could experience severe flooding in 2026.
The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Utsev, disclosed this in Abuja on Wednesday during the presentation of the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency.
He explained that the high-risk areas span 266 local government areas, based on scientific forecasts and hydrological assessments.
The affected states include Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara, along with the FCT.
“States in this category include Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara,” the minister said.
Utsev added that 15,597 communities across 405 LGAs in 35 states fall under moderate flood risk, with Ekiti identified as the only state not affected, while 923 communities in 77 LGAs across 24 states are classified as low-risk areas.
He also warned of possible flash and urban flooding in major cities such as Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Ibadan and Kano, while coastal and riverine flooding is expected in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo due to rising sea levels and tidal surges.
“The AFO is not just a scientific report; it is a call to action. Early warning saves lives and reduces economic losses,” he said.
The minister attributed the rising cases of flooding to climate variability, rapid urbanisation, poor drainage systems and weak land-use practices.
He noted that the government is improving hydrological monitoring through enhanced data systems, automated river gauges and advanced modelling, while also strengthening collaboration with relevant agencies to boost early warning systems.
Utsev urged state governments to incorporate flood risk into planning and infrastructure development, while calling for better drainage, effective floodplain management and stronger community preparedness.
Speaking at the event, President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, said flooding has remained a major national concern, citing repeated incidents since 2012.
He noted that the government has introduced policies and flood control projects to tackle the issue, adding that the 2024 Maiduguri flood marked a shift towards more proactive disaster management.
Tinubu described the flood outlook as a vital planning tool for mitigation and response efforts, urging stakeholders to use the forecast to safeguard lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.
The Director-General of the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, Umar Mohammed, said the outlook is based on extensive data analysis and serves as an early warning system for coordinated disaster response.
He added that the agency has upgraded its forecasting system with AI integration and introduced a flood dashboard for real-time monitoring and alerts, while urging residents in vulnerable areas to heed warnings and take preventive measures.