Campaigning for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election officially begins on Wednesday, five months before voters head to the polls in an election expected to be heavily influenced by the country’s economic challenges and President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda.
Africa’s most populous nation continues to grapple with economic difficulties and insecurity caused by various armed groups, while divisions within the opposition could strengthen Tinubu’s bid for a second term.
“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of the Nigeria politics newsletter The Bellwether.
Tinubu, who was elected president in 2023, has spent his first term implementing major economic reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, which had previously helped keep prices relatively low across the economy.
Although economists and investors have largely welcomed the reforms, they have also contributed to a severe cost-of-living crisis, with the naira losing significant value and inflation climbing to 34 per cent. Headline inflation, however, fell to 15.4 per cent in July.
The country’s worsening poverty situation, which began before Tinubu came to power, has continued to affect millions of Nigerians. According to the World Bank, more than 60 per cent of the population now lives below the poverty line, compared with 40 per cent in 2019.
Nigeria is also facing several security challenges, including jihadist insurgencies, non-ideological “bandit” groups, clashes between farmers and herders over land, as well as an ongoing separatist conflict.
Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, said violence had increased since 2024, “driven by the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria” as well as rising conflict in Borno State, the centre of the country’s jihadist insurgency.
At the same time, Adekaiyaoja argued that “the opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference” between their policies and those of Tinubu.
“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said 42-year-old civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, who said he planned to vote for Tinubu.
2023 rematch
Tinubu is regarded as one of Nigeria’s most experienced political strategists. His All Progressives Congress (APC) currently controls the National Assembly and 31 of the country’s 36 governorships.
The forthcoming election is expected to feature another contest involving some of the major candidates from 2023, with Tinubu again facing former Anambra State governor Peter Obi, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and other contenders.
Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 36.6 per cent of the vote, while Abubakar secured 29 per cent and Obi received 25 per cent.
Rabiu Kwankwaso, who polled approximately six per cent in the previous election, has now joined forces with Obi as his running mate.
“Nigeria is not safe — terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” said Becky Alegbe, a 28-year-old street vendor in Abuja.
Although Alegbe is registered to vote in her home village in Edo State, she said, “for me to take the risk to travel… I will not take that,” citing the sharp rise in transport fares and concerns over vote buying, which have affected previous elections.
Voter turnout stood at only 27 per cent in the 2023 election.
Presidential candidates sign peace accord
The commencement of the campaigns follows the signing of the National Peace Accord on Tuesday by President Tinubu, presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, the African Action Congress (AAC) candidate Omoyele Sowore, Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) presidential candidate Donald Duke and other political contestants.
The ceremony was held at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja and attracted representatives of other presidential candidates, governorship and National Assembly candidates, as well as the National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Joash Amupitan.
Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, political party chairmen and other senior political figures were also present.
The National Peace Committee (NPC) organised the event as the first phase of the peace initiative, with the second phase expected to take place after the 2027 elections.
The accord is intended to provide a framework for peaceful political engagement ahead of the January and February polls.
Before the event began, Obi called for a credible election and urged Nigerians to demand an electoral process in which their votes would genuinely count.
Obi calls for credible, violence-free election
The former Anambra State governor said, “I don’t have any fear [going into next year’s election] except to say that, please, for the sake of the children of Nigeria, can we have an election where people’s votes will count?”
Obi also urged Nigerians not to support candidates or political parties that violate the principles contained in the peace agreement.
“Well, the punishment is that Nigerians should not vote for them,” he said when asked what sanctions should be imposed on those who breach the accord.
He further urged political contestants to “be exemplary” in their conduct as the general election approaches.
“You can’t answer ‘His Excellency’ without being an excellent person,” Obi, 65, said. “So, the process that will make you answer ‘His Excellency’ should be excellent, and the only way to do it is to conduct yourself properly.”
Tinubu was represented at the peace accord signing by Akume. The president commended the leadership of the National Peace Committee, including former Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, Sultan of Sokoto Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, for sustaining the initiative since 2014.
He also highlighted technological developments in Nigeria’s electoral system, particularly the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), which he said had helped eliminate ballot stuffing and strengthened the power of voters.
Tinubu cited the off-cycle elections in Anambra, Osun and Ekiti as examples of increasing transparency within Nigeria’s electoral system.
“Different parties won them, and local and foreign observers described them as free, credible, and transparent. When the process and outcome are manifestly transparent, we see less post-election litigation in our courts,” he said.
The president added that “politicians are now more accountable to the people because votes count.”