As the clock ticks close to the finish line of incumbent Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke’s first term in office, the politics of possibility of him securing a second term or emergence of a fresh face at the Bola Ige House, Oke-Pupa, Osogbo, is already gaining thick momentum.
Already, Adeleke’s party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has endorsed him for a second term in office. The Governor also appears to be enjoying massive support from his cabinet members, labour and other affiliated unions in the State.
Recall that Adeleke came into office in 2022 after defeating then incumbent and predecessor, former Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC). While many thought Oyetola, now a minister in the President Bola Tinubu-led federal government would bounce back to the electoral ring to slug it out with his political rival, however, indications as at today proves otherwise as the immediate past Osun state governor is yet to resign his ministerial position nor present himself for re-election.
While the politics of power grab between the ruling party in the state, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and major opposition, All Progressives Congress (APC) is not new, however, each electoral circle comes with its own unique determinants testifying to the sagacity of the Osun electorates. For example, Adeleke and Oyetola had their first contest for the number one seat in on 22 September 2018. Adeleke won the first round of election with 353 votes as announced by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, the election was declared inconclusive on account of Adeleke’s margin of victory being smaller than the number of cancelled votes in seven polling units making the Commission to schedule a supplementary poll in the seven polling units across four local governments.
The APC candidate subsequently won six of the seven units. At the end of the tally of votes, the APC candidate, Oyetola scored a total of 255,505 votes while the PDP candidate, Adeleke scored a total of 255,023 votes. This saw then incumbent, Rauf Aregbesola handing over power to Oyetola, his erstwhile Chief of Staff (CoS) after a successful two-term tenure.
At their second meeting in 2022 when Oyetola sought re-election as incumbent, Adeleke carried the day with 403,371 votes, while Oyetola polled 375,027 votes.
APC affirms Oyetola’s right of first refusal
Different groups within the Osun state APC earlier in the year prevailed on party chieftains to suspend all memos and communiqués regarding the party’s candidacy.
This decision was reached at a recent Osun West Senatorial District APC stakeholders meeting in Iwo.
At the meeting, the stakeholders unanimously agreed that Oyetola has the right of first refusal for the party’s gubernatorial ticket.
The meeting, presided over by the Chairman of the Caucus, Akin Omolaoye, passed a vote of confidence in the party’s leadership at both the national and state levels, emphasizing that the APC will field the best candidate to win the 2026 governorship election in the state.
Omolaoye stated that Oyetola remains the party’s ticket holder unless he decides not to contest.
Reacting to recent tensions among party support groups, where members exchanged words that could lead to division, the party leaders ordered an immediate suspension of releases and communiqués by intra-party groups regarding the 2026 candidacy.
According to him, “party unity is more important than the ambition of any individual member.”
The caucus chair also appealed to the party leadership to zone the ticket to Osun West if Oyetola opts out of the race, in the interest of fairness and balance.
He stated that Osun West remains the APC’s stronghold and is capable of unseating the ruling party if given the opportunity to represent the party in the next governorship election.
“We do not have an anointed candidate, but we are speaking with one voice—if Oyetola is not contesting, it is the turn of Osun West to fly the party’s flag.
“We have more than a hundred qualified candidates in this district, and our priority is to produce the best candidate when the opportunity arises.
“We appeal to external forces to desist from making statements and taking actions that could divide the party. We are one big family in the APC, and we are committed to remaining united,” Omolaoye added.
Meet APC gladiators seeking to unseat Adeleke
With all indicators pointing to former Governor Oyetola not seeking re-election, the permutation for who flies the party’s gubernatorial ticket has been on the front burner of political discussions in the state.
However, top on the list of the likely party flagbearer is the immediate past Commissioner of Finance (under Oyetola’s administration) and current Managing Director/CEO National Inland Waterways Authority, Bola Oyebamiji.
With the party’s likely zoning posturing favoring the west, coupled with a growing call for equitable representation, he emerges as a strong contender for the APC flagbearer.
Oyebamiji hails from Ikire, Irewolede Local Government. He is known for his pragmatic leadership and contributions to Osun’s fiscal policies during his tenure as Commissioner for Finance.
The NIWA boss is said to be enjoying not only Oyetola’s support but that of other APC bigwigs in the state and if eventually fielded, his candidacy could energize the western electorate and present a formidable challenge to the opposition.
To set the ball rolling, an APC source in the state confirmed to NewsClick Nigeria that some party chieftains recently met to inaugurate stakeholders across the 30 Local Government Areas including the Ife-East Area Office, Modakeke using the moniker ‘AMBO’, an acronym for Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji. The newly-inaugurated stakeholders, according to the party stalwarts were tasked with selling Oyebamiji’s candidacy across the length and breadth of the state facilitate his victory as flag-bearer and next Governor of Osun come 2026.
A party chieftain who spoke on condition of anonymity with NewsClick Nigeria said while it requires a dose of extra hardwork to defeat an incumbent, however, it is not an impossible task and Oyebamiji seems to be ticking the right boxes in the battle against Adeleke.
“It is always difficult to defeat an incumbent but not impossible. Oyebamiji has been at the helms of affairs and he has convincing and intimidating track records. He is a character personified and epitome of virtues and values. He is a sellable candidate and I believe if we can go into the elections as a united family, APC can reclaim Bola Ige House,” he said.
Another possible and one many consider a strong contender within the APC fold is the National Secretary of the APC, Senator Ajibola Bashiru, SRJ.
The Osogbo-born Bashiru, having rose through the flanks as a former two-term commissioner of special duties, commissioner for Justice, Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the present National Secretary of the APC, has positioned himself as a force to reckon within the Osun State politics.
With Osogbo votes touted to decide who emerges Governor in Osun during elections and a formidable political structure with rumored support from APC Governors across Nigeria, SRJ will give Adeleke a run for his money should he emerge APC Candidate.
However, some analysts argue the ruling party’s National Secretary, who hails from Osun central, might see his candidature hitting the rock with clamour for candidate from the western part of the state.
Another candidate who has showed interest in the party’s governorship ticket is former Senior Special Assistant (SSA) to former President Muhammadu Buhari on National Assembly Matters, Senator Babajide Omoworare, has joined the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial race under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Omoworare has also inaugurated a three-man team to handle mobilization in the 30 local government areas the state.
The odds might also favour other likely contenders like a former chieftain of the PDP in the state, Prince Dotun Babayemi, who recently decamped to the APC, and a former deputy governor of the state, Benedict Alabi.
Babayemi who was a gubernatorial aspirant in the 2022 PDP primary election, narrowly lost to incumbent Governor Adeleke
Osun West as next battle ground
As it stands, with vested interests calling aggressively on the APC to zone the governorship ticket to Osun West where incumbent Governor Adeleke hails from, the senatorial district might likely be the battle ground for both major parties. It covers the local government areas of Aiyedaade, Aiyedire, Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, Ejigbo, Irewole, Isokan, Iwo, and Ola Oluwa.
They reasoned that zoning the ticket to the senatorial district would be a balance of contest to have the two major candidates from the area. Besides, Osun Central, where Oyetola hails from was at the helms of affairs in the state cumulatively for 15 years, while Osun East, where former governor, Rauf Aregbesola hails from, ruled for eight years, leaving Osun West with just five years by the end of the current tenure of the incumbent.
Likely challenges for Adeleke, APC
The forthcoming Osun 2026 gubernatorial poll will be a litmus test for not only the state chapter of the APC but particularly of more interest to the centre (national) being the last round of off-season election before the 2027 general elections. The implication here is that the ruling APC at the centre is unlikely to look away and might support with the necessary ‘federal might’ should the need arises, a move that might affect Adeleke’s chances.
According to feelers from the state, the Adeleke-led administration so far has been marked by an ambitious agenda focused on infrastructure development, education reforms, and social welfare programs.
Critics, however, argued that while his policies are popular, implementation has been uneven, and challenges like unemployment and revenue generation remain a point of concern among the members of the public.
With a mix of achievements and controversies, Adeleke’s re-election bid will likely hinge on his ability to consolidate his base while addressing lingering criticisms.
While Adeleke’s PDP enjoys relative stability, and has given its golden ticket to the “Dancing Governor” the opposition is navigating a murky landscape.
The APC, Osun’s main opposition party, is yet to recover from the internal divisions that contributed to Oyetola’s defeat in 2022. Infighting, leadership tussles, between Former Governor Rauf Aregbesola and an apparent lack of a clear strategy have left the party at a crossroads. Aregbesola never hid his misgivings for the Oyetola administration while in power. According to reports, issues leading to their fallout are largely unresolved.
The crisis rocking the party in the state recently took a new twist when its leadership headed by Tajudeen Lawal, suspended Aregbesola over anti-party activities. How the party is able to handle and resolve some of these challenges will go a long way to decide its fate in the forthcoming polls.