A World Bank report has projected Angola’s capital, Luanda, to overtake Lagos as sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city by 2050, with its population expected to rise by 78 percent to 20.3 million.
The projection is contained in a report titled ‘Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation’, which examines the region’s urbanisation trends and their implications for economic growth and employment.
The projections are based on calculations by the World Bank and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, using population data from Schiavina and other researchers.
The report estimated that Luanda’s population would increase from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million in 2050, adding 8.9 million residents over the period.
Lagos, the region’s most populous city in 2025 with an estimated 12.8 million residents, is projected to grow to 16.2 million by 2050, an increase of more than 25 percent.
Despite the growth, Lagos is expected to fall behind Luanda, whose population is projected to exceed that of Nigeria’s commercial hub by 4.1 million.
“Over this period, the population of Angola’s capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. In doing so, Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA’s most populous city,” the report said.
‘AFRICA URBAN POPULATION TO REACH 1.7 BILLION’
The report also said sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population will increase by 748 million between 2025 and 2050, reaching about 1.7 billion.
The World Bank said the region’s urban population grew from approximately 170 million in 1975 to 913 million in 2025, highlighting the scale of the demographic shift expected over the next 25 years.
The multilateral said the expansion presents an opportunity to stimulate economic growth and create jobs, but warned that urbanisation alone would not guarantee higher productivity or better living standards.
The report added that sub-Saharan Africa needs to create about 15 million jobs annually to keep pace with its expanding young workforce.
The Washington-based institution identified inadequate infrastructure, limited access to public transport, weak regulatory environments and unplanned urban expansion as constraints preventing cities from fully realising their economic potential.
The bank recommended that governments prioritise investment in transport, infrastructure, and well-located affordable housing to bring workers closer to businesses and employment opportunities.
The World Bank also called for better urban planning, stronger local government financing, and policies that attract private investment.
According to the report, decisions on infrastructure, housing, and land use over the coming years will shape the region’s cities and their capacity to generate jobs for decades.