Nigeria may experience 31,400 additional heat-related deaths over the next six months as El Niño strengthens, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The report estimates that the phenomenon could result in 66,800 excess deaths across Africa’s Sahel region, with Nigeria accounting for almost half of the projected figure.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have cautioned that an exceptionally strong El Niño could intensify extreme heat, drought and flooding.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the climate phenomenon could reach its peak towards the end of 2026, affecting temperature and rainfall patterns around the world.
She called on governments and humanitarian agencies to leverage weather forecasts and early-warning systems to safeguard vulnerable populations.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that about 50 million people could face increased hunger as the crisis worsens food insecurity.
He said the African Development Bank estimates that the crisis could cost African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion and reduce their GDP by one to two per cent.
The Climate Impact Lab projects that El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related de@ths globally during its first nine months, from June to February, with countries in the Global South expected to bear a disproportionate burden.
In Nigeria, temperatures have recently reached 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
Prolonged extreme heat could increase heat-related illnesses, strain water and electricity supplies, and threaten farming and outdoor livelihoods.
The report recommends early-warning systems, cooling centres and protection for outdoor workers to reduce de@ths.
Although El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, human-induced climate change is worsening the risks associated with rising temperatures.
Saulo said its effects could not be prevented entirely, but the worst consequences could be reduced through timely action and coordinated preparedness.
