Thirteen states intend to borrow or receive aid assistance totaling N2.31 trillion in 2024 to address budget shortfalls, according to a breakdown of their projected budgets for 2024.
This will raise the debt profile of the states to at least N4.73 trillion. According to data from the Data Management Office, the states’ domestic indebtedness were N2.61 trillion as of the end of September 2023. Because the states’ external debt profiles have not yet been released, they were not included.
In an interview with The PUNCH on Monday, the Nigerian Labour Congress expressed concern over the states’ expanding debt profile.
The labour union bemoaned the fact that many states were mortgaging the future for the sake of the present.
The National Secretary-General, NLC, Chris Onyeka, said, “We are worried, as workers, who are the ones that create wealth, who generate the fund that will be used to pay these loans. We are worried. If these loans will be invested in productive activities that can by themselves generate revenue for repayment, we don’t have any problem. But our history has shown that loans do not repay themselves in this part of the world.”
The states covered in this report with their domestic debts as of the end of September 2023 include Lagos (N960.49bn), Abia (N138.78bn), Niger (N120.19bn), Zamfara (N96.77bn), Borno (N102.04bn), Ondo (N72.75bn), Anambra (N73.72bn), Bayelsa (N129.33bn), Edo (N126.26bn), Enugu (N92.21bn), Kano (N122.36bn), Kogi (N92.32bn), and Ogun (N293.21bn).
With a budget of N2.25tn, Lagos plans to raise a revenue of N1.85tn (internally generated revenue of N1.25tn and federal transfer of N596.63bn), leaving it with a deficit financing of N398.28bn.
The Governor of Lagos, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, stated, “The ‘Budget of Renewal’ has a total size of N2.25tn, comprising revenue of N1.85tn and deficit financing of N398.3bn.”
He added, “The deficit financing shall consist of external and internal loans and bonds, which are well within our fiscal sustainability parameters.”
Abia’s planned loan
Abia plans to borrow N385.27bn to fund a deficit of N401.16bn. This will increase the state’s total debt profile by at least 277.61 per cent to N524.05bn.
Commenting on the plan for borrowing, the governor of the state, Alex Otti, said, “The 2024 budget proposal targets the expansion of our public infrastructure in line with our new development targets, scaling up access and quality service delivery in the social sector, with a special focus on education and health where we are proposing to commit more than 20 per cent and 15 per cent of the aggregate budget spending, respectively.
“The key distinction in the 2024 budget estimate, however, is in the direction of spending. While the 2023 projection allocated 53 per cent of the entire budget for capital expenditure, our target in the 2024 fiscal year is to spend 84 per cent of the total expenditure on capital projects and commit 16 per cent to recurrent expenditure, as against 47 per cent in the 2023 estimates.”
In Niger, the governor is planning new borrowings of N256.46bn, which will increase the state’s debt profile by at least 213.38 per cent to N376.65bn. While presenting his N613.27bn budget, the governor, Muhammed Bago, noted, “The Budget is also to be financed by capital receipts of N315.32bn which is made up of N256.46bn and N58.76bn as loans and grants respectively.”
Zamfara is planning to rely on capital receipts of N263.09bn to fund its 2024 budget.
According to various reports, capital receipts are receipts that either create liabilities or reduce the asset value of the government. They are loans raised by the government from various sources to fund long-term developmental needs.
The Governor of Zamfara State, Dauda Lawal, said, “The proposed 2024 budget is broken down into N160.43bn and N263.09bn as projected recurrent revenues and capital receipts, respectively.
“These revenues are based on multiple grant resources to make them fiscally realisable, coherent, and consistent with medium and long-term strategic plans. Similarly, the year has a corresponding expenditure outlay of N118.13bn for the recurrent component and N305.39bn for the capital component.”
Borno’s budget
Borno State has a total budget of N340.5bn for 2024, N128.8bn of it will come from capital receipts, including aid, grants, and capital development funds. Ondo’s N384.53bn budget will be partly funded by another capital receipt of N25.10bn and financing N76.06bn.
Anambra State intends to finance N120.8bn from its N410bn budget from financial institutions. Bayelsa State’s 2024 budget proposal totals N480.99bn, while the state’s governor, Douye Diri, explained that N141.58bn would come from capital receipts including stamp duties, loans, and grants, among other.
He said, “We are guided by the desire to prepare a realistic, implementable and prioritised budget which is a reflection of the aspirations and wishes of critical stakeholders, and the economic realities in the country.”
Edo State’s N325.3bn 2024 budget will partly be funded by capital receipts worth N40bn. Enugu’s N521.5bn budget will be partly funded with N71bn domestic borrowing and N32.75bn international borrowing.
The governor, Peter Mbah, commented, “The capital receipts of N137.77bn to be realised as follows: external and internal aids and grants, N27.92bn; public-private partnership, N6.10bn; domestic loans/borrowings, N71bn; and international loans/borrowing receipts, N32.75bn.”
In Kano State, the government intends to raise N39.27bn as capital receipt to partly funds its N350bn budget. Kogi State’s 2024 budget proposal is worth N258.28bn and its estimated capital receipt is N89.87bn comprising internal and external loans, aids, and grants.
Ogun IGR
In Ogun State, the governor, Dapo Abiodun, has presented a budget proposal of N703bn for 2024. The state’s capital receipt, including internal and external loans, as well as grants and aids, is projected at N240.24bn.
Speaking on other revenue sources, the governor said, “The revenue composition includes Ogun State Internal Revenue Service with an estimate of N100.81bn and other Ministries, Departments, and Agencies estimated at N139.73bn totaling N240.54bn.”
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Recently,32 of the 36 state governments of the federation have budgeted N14.13tn for capital and recurrent expenditures in 2024.
Twenty of them earmarked N5.26tn of their total budgets for recurrent expenditures such as payment of salaries, trips, and others in 2024.
Many states are budgeting to spend more in 2024 due to hardship caused by fuel subsidy removal and expected increases in revenue. The Federal Government in its revised 2024 – 2026 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, revealed plans to increase state and local governments’ central revenue by 109.74 per cent to N14.04tn in 2024.
The increase in revenue is predicted because of exchange rate effects, higher oil production projections, and the removal of the subsidy.
JP Morgan recently affirmed, “Of course, a weaker exchange rate means the government would receive higher naira revenues from oil and gas exports.”
For instance, the total revenue made by the Federal Government has recorded a 66.43 per cent jump to N8.11tn since fuel subsidy removal and the foreign exchange unification policy.
Before the implementation of these two policies (January to May 2023), the total revenue of the Federal Government was N4.87tn, it has since grown to N8.11tn between June to October.
Borrowing, particularly for recurrent expenditure is worrying to economists. An economist and former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, recently said, “The situation is bad, but most states do not have enough in terms of internally generated revenue. A lot of the states, even their federal government allocation, cannot pay salaries, which is very dangerous. You should not borrow to pay salaries.
“You should borrow to finance capital projects. States have to think of new ways of increasing their IGRs. If they continue borrowing to pay salaries, it is not good for the economy.”
According to development economist, Dr Aliyu Ilias, many states may have no other option than to borrow considering the condition of the economy.
NLC kicks
The National Secretary-General of the NLC, Onyeka, told The PUNCH that the country is headed for dangerous times with record levels of borrowing from the federal and state governments.
He said, “It is very clear that we are in dangerous times in Nigeria, when the head is bad then the rest of the body will become bad. If the FG is borrowing excessively, the states will also follow likewise because there is no one to check them, and there is no one to set the moral tone.
“We need to ask why they are borrowing. They blame it on fiscal inefficiencies, in essence, they do not have enough cash to meet their obligations. Naturally, it is not too bad to borrow, but it is what you do with the money that is critical. When you borrow, what are you borrowing for? If they borrow for productive activities, there is nothing wrong with that. But in Nigeria, borrowed funds are looted, not used for productive activities, and shared too. This is why we have problems.”
He lamented that despite all the borrowing going around, some states are still owing workers’ salaries. “Most of these borrowed funds do not trickle down to the people of the state,” Onyeka noted.
He expressed concern that many states are incapable of paying their loans and are borrowing against their future.
“A responsible state government will not eat the future of its people. States should cut their expenditure to within their means, but many of them have become profligate. States must rein in the reckless borrowing,” he added.