The World Bank has sounded a cautionary note that a surge in conflict within the Middle East might intensify food insecurity challenges in Nigeria and other countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region.
This alert was highlighted in the Global Economic Prospect report, where the World Bank offered insights into its economic outlook for 2024.
According to the bank, political instability and violence together with disruptions in global trade, especially in the Middle East, portends huge risks for the region with regards to food insecurity.
The report noted that an oil price increase as a result of conflict would lead to increased transport and logistics costs which could disrupt supply chains and worsen the already high food inflation witnessed in Nigeria and other countries in the region.
The report states, “An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate the situation in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries in terms of food insecurity. A conflict-induced sustained oil price spike would not only raise food prices by increasing production and transportation costs but could also disrupt supply chains, leading to less affordable food and an uptick in malnutrition rates in the region.
“Although global food and energy prices have retreated from their peaks in 2022, disruptions to global or local trade and production could reignite consumer price inflation, especially food price inflation, throughout the region. Such disruptions, especially in mining and agriculture, could be triggered by extreme weather events linked partly to climate change.
The bank also said global growth could weaken more than expected, owing to tighter financing conditions or further deterioration in China’s economic growth.
It added that countries that rely heavily on China as an export destination for these commodities would be hit especially hard by slower-than-projected Chinese growth.
“Global growth could weaken more than expected,perhaps owing to tighter financing conditions or further deterioration in China’s growth. In such a scenario, the prices of many of SSA’sexport commodities, especially metals and minerals, could weaken. Countries that rely heavily on China as an export destination for these commodities would be hit especially hard byslower-than-projected Chinese growth.”
The World Bank also highlighted the vulnerability of the Sub-Saharan Africa region to extreme weather events linked to climate change, such as floods and droughts. These events could contribute to an increase in food inflation, particularly as many farmers in the region practice subsistence agriculture.
In October 2023, the Food and Agricultural Organisation warned that around 26.5 million Nigerians are at risk of hunger in 2024. Already, food inflation has blown over the roof in Nigeria. According to the NBS, Nigeria’s food inflation for November stood at 32.84 per cent.
Moreover, the United Nations reported that since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, around 78 per cent of Africans cannot afford a healthy diet, highlighting the region’s struggle to meet its food security targets for 2030.