The Nigerian Naira recorded measured fluctuations against the US Dollar on Wednesday, 4 March 2026, as activity in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) continued to reflect ongoing price discovery. Live market data indicates that the currency softened slightly during mid-week trading, following a month characterised by relative stability and ample liquidity.
Official Market Performance (NFEM)
At the official window, the Naira commenced trading at 1,379.05 per dollar. Early transactions saw the rate move within a tight band, dipping to 1,376.02 before making a modest recovery. As at 7:30am WAT, the currency was trading at about 1,377.04 per dollar.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has kept its closing rate around 1,384.29, reflecting a mild depreciation compared with the February average of 1,364.74. Authorised dealers note that although foreign exchange demand remains elevated — particularly for corporate remittances and manufacturing imports — the market continues to benefit from the CBN’s “willing-buyer-willing-seller” framework, which has helped avert the sharp and disorderly devaluations experienced in previous years.
Parallel Market Trends
The parallel market remains closely aligned with the official window, with the dollar trading between 1,385 and 1,395 per dollar. The margin between both segments remains narrow, estimated at roughly 1.2 per cent to 1.5 per cent.
Traders in key commercial centres such as Lagos and Kano observe that the “black market” now operates largely as a retail segment serving personal travel and small business transactions. The minimal premium suggests that the central bank’s transparency measures and consistent supply to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators are stabilising expectations and discouraging speculative hoarding.
Economic Drivers and Market Outlook
A number of underlying factors are influencing the exchange rate as of 4 March:
Monetary Policy and Inflation: The CBN has retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 per cent following a recent 50-basis-point reduction. This high-yield environment, combined with a decline in headline inflation to 15.10 per cent, continues to offer a “real” return to investors, supporting the Naira.
External Reserve Strength: Nigeria’s external reserves remain solid, providing the apex bank with sufficient capacity to intervene during periods of constrained liquidity.
Oil Sector Performance: Consistent crude oil output at 1.46 million barrels per day is sustaining foreign exchange inflows, helping to offset rising import demand as the first quarter advances.
Market analysts project that the Naira will likely trade within the 1,375 to 1,385 range in the official window for the rest of the week. Investors are also monitoring potential policy guidance from fiscal authorities on structural reforms within the energy sector, which could shape the currency’s longer-term outlook.