The Nigerian naira maintained a largely stable position against the US dollar as the first full trading week of March 2026 approached its close. Data from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and various parallel market sources indicate that the local currency traded within a narrow range, supported by strong national reserves and a continued easing of inflationary pressure.
Official market performance (NFEM)
At the official NFEM window, the naira opened at ₦1,385.42 per dollar in the early hours of Friday. By 3:00 a.m. WAT, the rate showed slight improvement, settling at ₦1,385.20. This follows the previous day’s closing rate of ₦1,385.30, suggesting that the market is currently in a consolidation phase.
The rate marks a slight cooling compared with the end of February, when the naira traded closer to the ₦1,360 mark. Despite the marginal week-on-week depreciation, the market remains liquid. Authorised dealers say the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to operate the “willing-buyer-willing-seller” model, which has helped reduce the sharp intraday volatility seen in earlier years.
Parallel market trends
In the parallel market, the dollar is exchanging between ₦1,395 and ₦1,405. The gap between the official and informal markets remains narrow, estimated at about 1.5 per cent.
Traders in major financial centres such as Lagos and Abuja report the usual end-of-week demand linked to personal travel and small-scale business transactions. However, there are no signs of speculative hoarding. The narrow spread between the two markets suggests that the central bank’s foreign exchange supply to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators is adequately meeting retail demand.
Macroeconomic factors and outlook
Several economic indicators are helping to support the naira’s value this month.
Nigeria’s external reserves recently reached $50.45 billion, the highest level in 13 years. This provides about 9.68 months of import cover and gives the CBN greater capacity to stabilise the exchange rate.
Inflation has also shown signs of easing. Headline inflation declined to 15.10 per cent in the most recent report, a notable drop from the 34.19 per cent peak recorded in 2024. The slower pace of price growth has strengthened the real value of the naira.
The operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery are also contributing to stability, as the facility has reportedly begun absorbing part of global crude price increases internally. This has reduced the volume of foreign exchange required for refined fuel imports and helped cushion the domestic economy from energy-driven inflation.
Meanwhile, crude oil production has remained steady at about 1.46 million barrels per day, ensuring a consistent flow of foreign exchange earnings.
As trading continues, analysts expect the naira to end the week within the ₦1,380 to ₦1,390 range. Market attention is now turning to mid-month trade data, which is expected to provide further insight into the long-term impact of recent interest rate adjustments.