The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified Ethiopia, Guinea, Uganda, Rwanda and Benin among Africa’s fastest-growing economies for 2026, with Nigeria absent from the list.
Ethiopia leads the ranking with projected growth of 9.2 per cent, followed by Guinea at 8.7 per cent, Uganda at 7.5 per cent, Rwanda at 7.2 per cent and Benin at seven per cent.
Ethiopia, which records the continent’s highest projected growth, is achieving the expansion despite renewed conflict in the country.
In September 2026, fighting resumed in the northern Tigray region between Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, raising concerns about a return to the devastating 2020–2022 civil war.
The conflict has spread into parts of the Afar and Amhara regions, with dozens of civilians, including children, reportedly killed and wounded.
Airstrikes, including drone attacks, struck five schools in Tigray on September 22, resulting in deaths and injuries. The Ethiopian army also claimed it killed 272 Tigrayan rebel fighters during a single operation in Amhara.
Ethiopia severed diplomatic relations with Eritrea on October 1, 2026, accusing Asmara of supporting the Tigray rebels.
The developments have left Ethiopia facing one of its most serious security crises in years, amid fears of a wider regional conflict involving Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan.
Despite the conflict, the IMF projects Ethiopia’s economy to expand by 9.2 per cent in 2026, keeping it among sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest-growing economies.
The growth has been broad-based, with industry, agriculture and services all contributing to economic activity.
The IMF estimates that real GDP grew by 9.2 per cent in 2024/25 and expects the same rate in 2025/26 before growth slows to 7.8 per cent in 2026/27.
The Ethiopian government has projected 10.1 per cent growth next year.
The IMF said economic activity remained strong despite the war in the Middle East, with only modest effects on output growth and consumer price inflation. It added that exports, reserves and government revenue continued to improve through early 2026.
Guinea ranks second with projected growth of 8.7 per cent. The country has experienced political instability since the 2021 coup, but its mining sector has continued to attract foreign investment and support economic expansion.
Growth in Guinea has been boosted by the expansion of the Simandou iron ore project.
Uganda is projected to grow by 7.5 per cent, supported by infrastructure development and the expected expansion of its oil sector.
Rwanda’s economy is expected to expand by 7.2 per cent, with the IMF attributing the performance to its consistent policy framework and investment in technology.
Benin completes the top five with projected growth of seven per cent, driven by infrastructure spending and greater regional trade integration.
Nigeria’s position
Nigeria’s absence from the list comes against the backdrop of its previous economic performance.
The country’s last period of growth at comparable levels was in 2015 under former President Goodluck Jonathan, when the economy expanded by 3.96 per cent in the first quarter before slowing to 2.8 per cent for the full year.
At the time, Nigeria remained Africa’s largest economy, with growth supported by non-oil sectors such as agriculture and services.
Under President Bola Tinubu, the IMF estimates Nigeria’s economy grew by four per cent in 2025 and projects growth of 4.1 per cent in 2026.
The Fund cited higher food and transport costs as some of the factors weighing on economic activity.
The Presidency has defended the growth projection, noting that Nigeria is still expanding faster than the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and South Africa.
However, the comparison comes as some other African economies are recording significantly higher growth rates.
The IMF has also acknowledged the difficult economic conditions facing many Nigerians.
Poverty reached 63 per cent, while an estimated 27 million Nigerians experienced food insecurity in the autumn of 2025.
The Fund has warned that higher global prices for fuel, food and fertiliser could create additional inflationary pressures and worsen poverty and food insecurity.
Opposition figures have criticised the gap between the government’s account of economic recovery and the financial difficulties experienced by households.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar asked during his Independence Day address: “Bola, where is this prosperity?”
He argued that falling inflation and rising exports could not by themselves demonstrate improved living conditions if Nigerians continued to struggle with the cost of food, transportation, healthcare and education.
The Makinde/Daura Presidential Campaign Organisation described Tinubu’s speech as a “rhetorical exercise bereft of solutions,” arguing that the removal of the petrol subsidy and the floating of the naira had triggered a severe economic shock, with consequences including increased transport costs and pressure on manufacturers and consumers.
The Peoples Democratic Party also criticised the administration, describing it as “the Pharaoh who is chasing Nigerians,” while arguing that citizens were navigating what it called a “Red Sea of economic pain”.
Ethiopia and Nigeria compared
The economic performances of Ethiopia and Nigeria present a notable contrast.
Ethiopia is experiencing renewed conflict but is projected to grow by 9.2 per cent, while Nigeria, which is not facing a comparable nationwide war, is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent.
Ethiopia has dealt with renewed fighting in Tigray, a diplomatic breakdown with Eritrea and the wider effects of the Iran crisis. Despite these challenges, the IMF expects its growth to remain broad-based, with improvements in exports, reserves and government revenue.
Nigeria, meanwhile, continues to face challenges in attracting investment and ensuring that its economic reforms translate into improved living conditions for citizens.
The Tinubu administration has repeatedly defended its reforms as difficult but necessary steps to correct long-standing economic distortions.
Tinubu’s Independence Day address also presented the reforms as part of a difficult transition from economic challenges towards recovery.
However, the IMF’s projections indicate that Nigeria’s growth remains below the sub-Saharan African average of 4.3 per cent.
Nigeria’s projected 4.1 per cent growth is also less than half of Ethiopia’s 9.2 per cent and Guinea’s 8.7 per cent, while remaining below the projections for Uganda, Rwanda and Benin.
The IMF said risks to Nigeria’s economic outlook include the uncertain global environment, particularly the direction of fuel and food prices, as well as domestic security challenges.
On the positive side, the Fund said faster progress in revenue mobilisation could create additional fiscal space for priority spending capable of supporting economic growth.
For now, Nigeria is not among the African economies recording the highest projected growth rates for 2026.
The countries at the top of the list are recording growth rates that Nigeria has not experienced at a similar level in recent years, putting the government’s claim that its reforms are laying the foundation for prosperity against the everyday economic realities facing Nigerians.