Nigeria’s consumer price index (CPI), otherwise known as inflation rate for goods and services, rose to the highest level since May, at 11.28 percent last September, the National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) has said.
The statistics agency, in its latest CPI report published Tuesday in Abuja, said the new rate, a marginal increase of 0.05 percent, rose from 11.23 percent in August, about 0.84 percent rise on a monthly basis.
The CPI measures the average change in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living over time.
Amid general increases in prices of goods and services, the latest rise is the second in two successive months after 18 consecutive months of decline, from about 17.78 percent in February 2017 to 11.14 percent in July 2018.
Despite the rising rate, the NBS said core inflation, which actually mirrors the actual inflation for the economy, dropped marginally to about 9.8 percent, from 10 percent.
Commenting on the development, analysts at Cordros Capital forecast a brighter outlook ahead.
In an email to investors, they stated that the current report dovetails into their expectation.
They stated: “In line with our views, inflation sustained uptick for the second consecutive month in September, albeit slower than we and Bloomberg consensus had anticipated.
“Headline CPI inched mildly higher by 6 basis points(bps) to 11.28 percent (slowest increase in 11 month) from 11.23 percent recorded in the prior month. Notably, despite the sharp temperance in the food (-42bps to 1.0 percent month-on-month (m/m) and core baskets (-14bps to 0.64 percent m/m), headline month-on-month number of 0.84 percent (August: 1.05 percent) was enough to drive sustained uptick in headline year-on-year for the review period – further lending credence that base effect has fully dissipated.
“Into the rest of the year, we expect the ongoing main harvest in the North and South to further exert downward pressure on food prices as supplies continue to flood the market. However, we expect the foregoing will be limited by the widespread flooding incidence reported across food producing states.
Elsewhere, in the face of increasing energy prices, we believe the NNPC will remain committed towards strategic supply of petroleum products to steer clear of fuel shortages, with the attendant impact leaving core inflation in check. Hence, we forecast month-on-month headline reading of 0.80% for October, with the corresponding y/y reading of 11.33% (December 2018: 11.52% y/y).”
