OPEC declared on Thursday that global demand for crude oil will continue to rise until at least 2050, dismissing swift transitions away from fossil fuels as an “unworkable fantasy.”
In its latest annual oil outlook, the cartel projected that global oil demand will increase by 18.6%, from 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024 to approximately 123 million barrels daily by 2050.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, in the report’s foreword, attributed the growth to expanding economies, population increases, urbanisation, emerging energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence, and the need to provide energy access to billions currently without it.
“There is no sign of peak oil demand approaching,” Al Ghais asserted.
This outlook contrasts sharply with that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents many oil-consuming nations. The IEA forecast last month that global oil demand would begin declining by 2030, largely due to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and the transition away from oil-based power generation.
The IEA even anticipates a fall in demand within Saudi Arabia, a leading OPEC member, as it turns to natural gas and renewables for electricity production.
Al Ghais emphasised that the anticipated demand growth would primarily come from developing countries. He added that fossil fuels still make up about 80% of the global energy mix—virtually unchanged since OPEC’s establishment in 1960.
“In recent years, many policymakers have realised that the idea of rapidly eliminating oil and gas is not only impractical but a fantasy,” Al Ghais stated.
He also criticised many net-zero carbon targets for ignoring considerations of energy security, affordability, and practicality.
However, climate experts continue to warn that a swift transition away from fossil fuels is vital to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.