The long drawn, episodic standoff between the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, Nigeria’s quintessential industrialist, and the outgoing Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of one of the oil sector regulators, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, came to a sudden denouement last week.
The last episode was the vitriolic tirade launched penultimate Sunday by the founder of the Dangote Refinery and Petrolchemicals against a regulator whose activities he may have viewed as adversarial to the survival of his multibillion dollar behemoth. It had all the nuances of high drama.
The Africa’s richest man, who wears a permanent smiling face and whose penetrating eyes can pick business opportunities from afar off with the clarity of binocular lenses, always keeps a dignified poise, at least in public, but what he portrayed in the last one week was a different visage.
He actually went for broke and literally reached for Ahmed’s jugular, a splatter of mud some people have described as a ‘sour grape.’ Dangote accused the NMDPRA’s outgoing boss of living beyond his means. He alleged that four of Ahmed’s children attend secondary schools in Switzerland where he pays $5 million (over N7billion).
Dangote argued that such a questionable expenditure raises questions about potential conflicts of interest and the integrity of regulatory oversight in the downstream petroleum sector.
He is not done yet. He also accused the NMDPRA leadership, headed until last week by Ahmed, of economic sabotage, alleging that regulatory actions were undermining local refining capacity in the country. He said the continued issuance of import licences for petroleum products is frustrating domestic refiners and entrenching dependence on imports.
He further alleged that the NMDPRA was colluding with international traders and oil importers to the detriment of local operators. And as if to prove that he probably has proofs of his allegations, Dangote on Tuesday dragged the regulator before the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), urging that Ahmed be arrested, investigated and prosecuted.
Dangote’s action, which is already causing the equivalent of a tremor in the industry, came as a surprise to many because he had never been this virulent and acerbic since the bitter recriminations between him and oil sector regulators began last year when his behemoth began operations.
But some industry watchers tend to interpret his action as his bitter reaction to a long span of perfidy, duplicity and frustrating regulatory bottlenecks his refinery has suffered from the regulators he had expected would ordinarily encourage his initiative. The elders say when you pursue a goat to a blind alley, it will turn round to attack you.
The paradox of Nigeria’s situation defies logic. The nation’s oil industry has been boxed into a cesspit of corruption, held down by importation cartels. These are powerful non-state actors working through corrupt petroleum industry officials to ensure zero petroleum products refining for decades by constantly sabotaging the Turnaround Maintenance (TAM) of the nation’s refineries that has to date gulped billions of dollars. The Buhari and Tinubu administrations’ bold and obviously well-meaning attempts to reverse the situation also ended in fiasco after a convoluted circus show!
The Dangote Refinery, however, came with the high hopes of pulling the nation out of the disgraceful decades of importation dragnet. By all standards, the largest private initiative, in sheer magnificence and vast prospects, is a national pride.
The $20 billion, 650,000 barrels per day-capacity behemoth, sitting comfortably on 2,635 hectares of vast land, said to be six times the size of Victoria Island, Lagos, is the world’s biggest single train facility. It has the capacity to meet the nation’s local demands with great prospects for exports.
So, any serious country will embrace and encourage such an initiative. But the regulators, especially the Farouk Ahmed- led NMDPRA, and NNPLC were inexplicably hostile to the Dangote Refinery from Day One.
The powerful importation cartels were obviously averse to the Dangote initiative, which had come to put them out of business by stopping their “cash cows”, fuel importation. It is curious that the regulators began to behave as if they were doing the bidding of the cartels to frustrate the business mogul.
The first thing was to deny Dangote Refinery crude oil by selling to it above the $6 global value, pushing him to start importing crude from the United States of America. The altercation over this continued until President Tinubu intervened by ordering the NNPCL to start selling crude oil to the behemoth and others in Naira.
Dangote’s escalated row with the outgoing NMDPRA boss, which center around fuel importation, pricing and regulatory oversight in the downstream sector, dates back to 2024, shortly after the $20bn Dangote Refinery began fuel production.
Dangote’s deputy, Devakumar Edwin, had accused the NMDPRA of indiscriminately issuing licences to marketers to import what he described as “dirty” refined products, forcing Dangote Refinery to export diesel and aviation fuel.
Ahmed’s response was to spark public outrage when he alleged that Dangote’s fuel was inferior to imported products, claiming that it contained higher sulphur levels. He had alleged that while imported diesel met the West African sulphur specification of 50 parts per million, products from Dangote and some modular refineries ranged between 650 and 1,200 ppm.
A highly peeved Dangote debunked those claims and threw a two-fold challenge at the NMDPRA boss to reveal publicly the laboratory where his agency conducted its tests showing that his diesel had high sulphur content. He also volunteered that two samples of his diesel be taken for a fresh testing to establish the veracity or otherwise of Ahmed’s claims. Neither of the two challenges was taken up by Ahmed.
It, however, soon came to light that the regulator’s accusations were no more than a tissue of porkies or lies contrived to de-market Dangote Refinery! A delegation of the House of Representatives visited Dangote Refinery on July 20, three days after the NMDPRA boss made his specious claims, and the truth eventually came out.
The tests of Dangote Refinery’s diesel conducted at the behest of the visiting federal lawmakers actually revealed 87.6 ppm normal range of sulphur, whereas the samples of imported diesel had between 2,000 and 18,000 ppm, making them highly toxic and dangerous to health!
This malfeasance prompted wide calls for Ahmed’s sack then.
The NMDPRA had in a report penultimate week attempted to justify why it continues to issue fuel import licences, alleging that there was a shortage in September and October. According to the data, NNPC and other marketers imported at least 1.5 billion litres of petrol in November alone.
The November import figure of 52.1 million litres per day was said to be the highest since the Dangote Refinery started petrol production in September, 2024, even as the Lekki refinery supplied 19.5 million litres per day during the same period.
The NMDPRA had claimed that low supply in September and October, 2025 below national demand, had necessitated increased imports. In September, it claimed, Dangote supplied 17.6 million litres per day, while imports stood at 22.1 million litres per day.
These claims got Dangote livid, while debunking them. He accused Ahmed of sabotaging the economy by issuing “reckless” import licences while his refinery tanks were full.
“As we speak now”, he said, “even our tanks are full because the NMDPRA has issued reckless licences. And we have to now go and complain to the government.
He added: “They are now ready to issue licences for about 7.5 billion litres for the first quarter of 2026, despite the fact that we have guaranteed to supply enough quantity.”
Ahmed has always accused Dangote of seeking monopolistic tendencies, but the latter’s simple answer is: nobody is prevented from building or acquiring refineries. Truly, the test of competition in the industry is not glibly stirring import craze the way Ahmed was doing but stimulating industrial growth by creating favourable regulatory conditions for establishing more refineries for local refining.
Why are the regulators not encouraging other well-heeled industrialists or investors to build more refineries and creating regulatory incentives for them to do so? Why is the environment so stultifying that only Dangote out of the 25 investors granted licences in 2016 was able to dare the terrain? Even Dangote himself once lamented that he would not have ventured into the project if he had known what he was up against!
Two experts volunteered profound comments on the imbroglio. First, Dr. Olisa Agbakoba, Senior Partner, OAL Energy and Natural Resource Practice Group, in a reaction, titled: “The Dangote Refinery-NMDPRA Dispute: Beyond Commercial Disagreement to Questions of Economic Sovereignty,” wondered: “Nigeria now has a $20 billion refinery, one of the world’s largest, yet we continue importing petroleum products. A private investor has built the refining capacity our nation desperately needs, but faces systematic undermining from the very regulatory authority whose mandate is to support such investments.
“When government policy actively frustrates transformative local investment, we must question whether our economic strategy serves national interest or perpetuates dependency…”
Dr Agbakoba has an appeal: “We urge all stakeholders to recognise the profound implications of this dispute and work toward a resolution that serves Nigeria’s constitutional obligations, development imperatives, and long-term national interest.”
A Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, disagreed with Ahmed’s allegation of monopolistic tendencies against Dangote, saying priotising indigenous refining will not result in monopolising the downstream market.
He said: “It can only be oligopolistic, not monopolistic. ‘Monopolistic’ is a distinct market structure with low barriers to entry and is inherently anti-competitive. That is not the case here. I am certain Dangote is not seeking to be a monopolist. Monopoly is not even good for business sustainability.”
Dangote appeared to have been impelled to launch his blistering attacks against Ahmed by his suffocating experience in the hands of the regulators. He was obviously letting out pent up emotions.
However, the high drama was still unfolding when it was brought into an anti-climax by presidential fiat. President Bola Tinubu, who doubles as Ahmed’s direct boss as the substantive Minister of Petroleum Resources, summoned the NMDPRA chief to Aso Villa last Wednesday.
He was obviously forced to resign his position while Dangote’s allegations against him were still buzzing both online and offline. The mud also smeared Ahmed’s counterpart, the CEO of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, who was also asked to resign.
To fill their positions, President Tinubu has written to the Senate, requesting expedited confirmation of Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan as CEO of NUPRC and Engr. Saidu Mohammed as CEO of NMDPRA.
The presidential axe, however, fell a little too hastily. The presidency, which has access to intels all the time, may know what the rest of us do not know. And going by Ahmed’s high-handedness against Dangote Refinery, his cup might have become full, but for the purpose of justice and fairness, the government ought to have allowed the investigative process to go the whole hog and the watching public adequately updated before wielding the big stick.
Of course, if the ICPC’s wheel of justice would drag too slowly for the President, he could have empowered a special panel to investigate the allegations and come out with the truth or otherwise before removing the two regulators.
This is more so as Ahmed himself had expressed the eagerness to clear his name on the “wild and spurious allegations,” which he claimed were made against him and his family and “the frenzy it has generated.”
As it is now, the government appears to be unfair to the NMDPRA’s chief for being removed when the allegations against him are yet be publicly proved or otherwise.
So, for justice to be fully served, while the ICPC goes on with looking into the allegation of corrupt enrichment against the NMDPRA outgoing chief, those concerning industry sabotage, including the alleged collusion with international traders to undermine local refining, should still be independently investigated with a view to establishing their veracity or otherwise.
The panel’s findings should be made public. All those found wanting, including Ahmed, should face prosecution accordingly. Those allegations are damn too weighty. And Dangote is not known to be a frivolous person.
The new NMDPRA and NUPRC helmsmen should learn from the pitfalls of their predecessors. They should sanitize both the downstream and upstream sectors, as the case maybe, prioritize local refining and deemphasize reckless issuance of import licences and stimulate the growth of the industry generally through optimum institutional regulations.
