Donald Trump: ‘A modern political miracle’

Essential Donald Trump! Either by default or design, this uncanny cat with nine lives, who survived assassination attempts, criminal convictions and indictments, has suddenly become an enigma of America’s intricate power game. Highly underrated and regarded as a felon by his litany of foes, he sailed against the tailwind of American sophisticated politics, bulldozing through established dynasties and emerged victorious.

The Republican flag bearer clinched 276 electoral college votes, surpassing the critical 270-vote threshold, against the 219 electoral votes scored by his rival, the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, to nimble a return to the Oval Office. Trump secured upsetting victories in critical states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina previously regarded as Democrats’ strongholds.

Eight years after his shocking upset of otherwise powerful Hillary Clinton and four years after Joe Biden sent him packing from the White House, Trump has emerged the 47th President of the United States of America against all odds. He has been the rave of reviews by American, nay the world press, describing his remarkable comeback as “a modern political miracle”!

His comeback victory is no less than a zenith of wonders for a man who left the presidency amid the wreckage of January 6, with his reputation in tatters.

His return to the White House is a story about American society, but it is also a story of his political resilience. No other leader in any democracy, let alone a democracy of the complexity, history and sophistication of the United States, has ever done what Trump has done in the last nine years. He is the only person since Franklin Delano Roosevelt who has been a nominee of a major party for president thrice in a row.

He is the only former American president who, after a criminal conviction, not just won his party’s nomination but has also won the national elections yet again, with an even bigger margin. And he is the only leader who has taken over one of the two major parties and completely reshaped its ideological worldview and political base.

Demolishing book makers calculations, Trump’s victory has opened a new and surprising face of American politics. It exemplifies Americans’ hard choice for survival in place of political finesse and sophistry. It has upended established tradition and enthroned an ineluctable embrace of stark realities.

Analysts attributed Trump’s victory partly to the failures of President Joe Biden and Harris, his Vice President. The former’s remarkable electoral feat was seen as a repudiation of the Biden administration whose sweeping pandemic relief, social spending and climate change programmes were hobbled by sky-high inflation and illegal immigration, both of which were brought under control too late.

A Nigerian living in Texas told us that part of what riled Americans against the Biden administration are the twin-challenge of the high inflation and illegal immigration. He said the inflation bogey is a serious matter, while illegal aliens exploit the porous borders to sneak in to rape and kill people.

A former Republican representative from Florida, Carlos Curbelo, said Biden’s failure paved the way for Trump, declaring: “The coalition that elected them(Biden and Harris) to unite the country and they failed to do so. Their failure has

resulted in further disillusionment with our country’s politics and empowered the Trump base to give him another narrow victory after setbacks in three consecutive elections.”

Peter Baker, a New York Times reporter, who has covered the past five American presidents and whose wife wrote a book on Trump’s presidency, in his decisive analysis of Trump’s comeback, argued, inter alia: “Pupulist disenchantment with the nation’s direction and resentment against elites proved to be deeper and more profound than many in both parties had recognized. Mr Trump’s testosterone-driven campaign capitalized on resistance to electing the first woman president.

“And while tens of millions of voters still cast ballots against Mr Trump, he once again tapped into a sense among many others that the country they knew was slipping away under the siege economically, culturally and demographically.

“To counter that, those voters ratified the return of a brash 78-year-old champion willing to upend convention and take radical action, even if it offends sensibilities or violates old standards. Any misgivings about their chosen leader were shoved to the side.

“As a result, Americans have elected a convicted criminal as president. They handed power back to a leader who tried to overturn a previous election, called for the ‘termination’ of the Constitution to reclaim his office, aspired to be a dictator on Day 1 and vowed to exact ‘retribution’ against his adversaries”.

A presidential historian at Columbia University, Timothy Naftali, posited that the real America “becomes Trump’s America”. He added: “Frankly, the world will say if this man wasn’t disqualified by January 6, which was incredibly influential around the world, then this is not the America that we knew.”

According to Baker, Trump’s allies view his comeback as vindicating his argument that Biden’s administration has grown out of touch; that Americans are weary of overseas wars and excessive immigration. So, rather than be put off by Trump’s flagrant, anger-based appeals, along the lines of race, gender, religion, national origin and especially transgender identity, they found them embracing.

Rather than pick offence at Trump’s brazen lies and wild conspiracy theories, many Americans found him authentic. Rather than see him as a felon found by various courts as a fraudster, cheat, sexual abuser and defamer, many embraced his assertion that he has been the victim of persecution.

However, in spite of the votility of the election, Nigerians have a lot to learn from Harris’s concession speech. It is all about the ennobling virtues of sportsmanship and stoic patriotism, placing national interest above narrow self- interest. “The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for,” the Democratic nominee was addressing her supporters in her concession speech.

“But hear me when I say… the light of America’s promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting. Look, I’m proud of the race we ran. And the way we ran it. Now, I know folks are feeling and experiencing a range of emotions right now. I get it, but we must accept the results of this election.

“Earlier today, I spoke with the President-elect Trump and congratulated him. I also told him that we will help him and his team with their transition and that we will engage in peaceful transition. A fundamental principle of American democracy is that when we lose an election, we accept the results.”

WHAT TRUMP’S VICTORY PORTENDS FOR AFRICA

As it became clear that Donald Trump had landed the US presidency for the second time, leaders from across Africa began tweeting their congratulations.

“Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you”, wrote Zimbabwean President, Emmerson Mnangagwa, eyeing a diplomatic reset, while our own president, Bola Tinubu, expressed hope that Trump’s second term would bring “reciprocal economic and development partnerships between Africa and the United States”.

But will Trump be good news for the continent? During his first stint in the White House, critics accused him of dismissing Africa, having cut some funding, curbed immigration and reportedly referred to some of its nations as “shithole countries”.

However, he did also introduce schemes to increase investment in Africa – schemes that remain operational three years after he left office.

Trump is an abrasive and a highly unpredictable leader. What is likely to be his administration’s policy on Africa this time?

In 2023, the US said it had invested more than $22 billion since Biden came to power. But there are concerns Trump might roll back on this investment and trade. According to a BBC report, the soon-to-be president has more of a protectionist, insular outlook than Biden – one of the slogans for his first term was “America First”.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has enabled eligible African countries to export some of their produce to the US without paying taxes since 2000, is a key source of concern.

During his previous administration, Trump said the scheme would not be renewed when it expires in 2025. And during his 2024 campaign, he pledged to implement a universal 10 per cent income tariff on all foreign-made goods. This would make imported goods more expensive, and so African exporters would likely sell less of their produce in the large US market.

Numerous commentators in South Africa – one of the largest exporters under the Agoa agreement – have predicted that cutting Agoa could have a significant impact on the economy. Although Trump was not keen on Agoa, he recognised that if the US was going to counter China’s growing economic influence in Africa, it needed to maintain some level of partnership.

In 2018, the Trump administration unveiled Prosper Africa – an initiative that assists US companies wanting to invest in Africa – and the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which funds development projects in Africa and around the world. Biden kept both running after he took over and the DFC says it has so far invested more than $10 billion (£8bn) in Africa.

Given that China is still a major force in Africa and that Trump introduced these policies himself, he is likely to think twice before slashing them.

On aids, Africa gets most of its aids from the US, which said it had donated almost $3.7 billion over this financial year. But Trump’s last administration repeatedly made proposals to slash foreign aids worldwide, according to BBC reports. Congress – where foreign aids had bipartisan support – rejected these cuts.

Had the cuts been implemented, “traditional US policies with respect to health, democracy promotion, and security assistance in Africa would have been eviscerated,” said the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think-tank.

There are also worries Trump might shut Pepfar, a long-running US initiative that has poured huge sums into fighting HIV in Africa. Last year, Republican lawmakers mounted significant opposition to Pepfar, alleging that the programme was promoting abortion services. It was granted a short-term extension until March, next year, but Trump – known for being anti-abortion – may shut the door on this reprieve.

The greatest worry is Trump’s views on illegal immigration, which are unambiguous. During his 2024 campaign, he promised to deport one million people who do not have legal permission to be in the United States. This concerns Africa as in 2022, around 13,000 African migrants were recorded at the US-Mexico border, according to US Customs and Border protection data. By 2023, this figure had quadrupled to 58,000. Some of these hopefuls speak of fleeing war, persecution and poverty.

This would not be his first dramatic anti-immigration policy. In his first term, Trump introduced measures that curbed immigration from several African countries, including Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan and Tanzania.

.Security and conflict: While Trump has been away from the presidency, Russia has stepped up its presence in Africa. One of the main ways it has done this is through providing troops and arms to countries hit by jihadist militants, such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Russia’s foothold has alarmed the US – the two are historic rivals.

Will Trump offer support to African countries in an attempt to push Russia out? “Even though the national security architecture in the United States perceives Russia as a threat, Trump personally has not acted as if he perceives Russia as a threat,” Mr Moore told the BBC.

There is speculation that Trump has a closer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin than he lets on. However, Trump has in the past stepped in to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram, a group of Islamist militants which has plagued the the nation for 15 years.

“During [former President Barack] Obama’s tenure, Nigerian-Americans advocated tirelessly for him, yet he declined Nigeria’s requests for arms. When our communities in northern Nigeria were under attack by Boko Haram, it was Trump who ultimately approved the purchase of Tucano jets, allowing us to strengthen our defences,” former lawmaker, Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonayinmma, told Vanguard newspapers.

These are, however, conjectures. No one is sure yet what unpredictable Trump would do until he assumes duties.

… WHAT ABOUT UKRAINE, MIDDLE EAST, CHINA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD?

According to the foreign media, Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, combined with a Republican-led US Senate, was widely feared among international allies and will be cheered by some of America’s foes. While the former put on a brave face, the latter are finding it hard to hide their glee.

On the war in Ukraine, Trump is likely to try to force Kyiv and Moscow into at least a ceasefire along the current front lines. This could possibly involve a permanent settlement that would acknowledge Russia’s territorial gains, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the territories occupied since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It is also likely that Trump would accept demands by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to prevent a future Ukrainian NATO membership. Given Trump’s well-known animosity to NATO, this would also be an important pressure on Kyiv’s European allies. Trump could, once again, threaten to abandon the alliance in order to get Europeans to sign up to a deal with Putin over Ukraine.

When it comes to the Middle East, Trump has been a staunch supporter of Israel and Saudi Arabia in the past. He is likely to double down on this, including taking an even tougher line on Iran. This aligns well with Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu’s current priorities.

Netanyahu seems determined to destroy Iran’s proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen and severely degrade Iranian capabilities. By dismissing his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, a critic of his conduct of the offensive in Gaza, Netanyahu has laid the ground for a continuation of the conflict there.

It also prepares for a widening of the offensive in Lebanon and a potentially devastating strike against Iran in response to any further Iranian attack on Israel. Trump’s election will embolden Netanyahu to act. And this in turn would also strengthen Trump’s position towards Putin, who has come to depend on Iranian support for his war in Ukraine. Trump could offer to restrain Netanyahu in the future as a bargaining chip with Putin in his gamble to secure a deal on Ukraine.

While Ukraine and the Middle East are two areas in which change looms, relations with China will most likely be characterised more by continuity than by change. With Chinese relations being perhaps the key strategic foreign policy challenge for the US, the Biden administration continued many of the policies Trump adopted in his first term – and Trump is likely to double down on them in a second term.

A Trump White House is likely to increase import tariffs, and he has talked a great deal about using them to target China. But Trump is also just as likely to be open to pragmatic, transactional deals with Chinese president Xi Jinping.

Trump has said he will target China with sanctions, but is also likely to pursue a pragmatic approach to relations with China. Just like in relations with his European allies in NATO, a serious question mark hangs over Trump’s commitment to the defence of Taiwan and other treaty allies in Asia, including the Philippines, South Korea, and potentially Japan. Trump is at best lukewarm on US security guarantees.

But as his on-and-off relationship with North Korea in his first term demonstrated, Trump is, at times, willing to push the envelope dangerously close to war. This happened in 2017 in response to a North Korean test of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The unpredictability of the regime in Pyongyang makes another close brush of this kind as likely as Trump’s unpredictability makes it conceivable that he would accept a nuclear-armed North Korea as part of a broader deal with Russia, which has developed increasingly close relations with Kim Jong-un’s regime.

Doing so would give Trump additional leverage over China, which has been worried over growing ties between Russia and North Korea. An expectation of a Trump push for an end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East is likely to lead to an intensification of the fighting there to create what the different parties think might be a more acceptable status quo for them. This does not bode well for the humanitarian crises already brewing in both regions.

Increasing tensions in and around the Korean peninsula are also conceivable. Pyongyang is likely to want to boost its credentials with yet more missile – and potentially nuclear – tests.

A ratcheting-up of the fighting in Europe and the Middle East and of tensions in Asia is also likely to strain relations between the US and its allies in all three regions. In Europe, the fear is that Trump may make deals with Russia over the head of its EU and NATO allies and threaten them with abandonment.

This would undermine the longevity of any Ukrainian (or broader European) deal with Moscow. The relatively dismal state of European defence capabilities and the diminishing credibility of the US nuclear umbrella would not but help to encourage Putin to push his imperial ambitions further once he has secured a deal with Trump.

In the Middle East, Netanyahu would be completely unrestrained. And yet while some Arab regimes might cheer Israel striking Iran and Iranian proxies, they will worry about backlash over the plight of Palestinians. Without resolving this perennial issue, stability in the region, let alone peace, will be all but impossible.

In Asia, the challenges are different. Here the problem is less US withdrawal and more an unpredictable and potentially unmanageable escalation. Under Trump, it is much more likely that the US and China will find it hard to escape the so-called Thucydides trap – the inevitability of war between a dominant but declining power and its rising challenger.

This then raises the question of whether US alliances in the region are safe in the long term or whether some of its partners, like Indonesia or India, will consider realigning themselves with China. At best, all of this spells greater uncertainty and instability – not only after Trump’s inauguration but also in the months until then.