TINUBU: ONE YEAR OF FAILED PROMISES?

“The fuel subsidy is gone!” President Bola Ahmed Tinubu thundered into the microphone as he read his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, on the dais of history and in the glare of the watching world, at the Eagle’s Square, Abuja, to the consternation of befuddled Nigerians!

Those words came like a thunderbolt and literally stang the people, who were glued to their television screens expecting otherwise exhilarating words from their new president.

“The subsidy can no longer justify its increasing costs in the wake of drying resources,” the newly sworn in president continued. “We shall instead channel the funds into better investments in public infrastructure, education, healthcare and jobs that will materially improve the lives of millions.” 

That quite imprudent pronouncement, which we observed earlier was akin to sloshing petrol into an inferno, came to stand the Tinubu administration on a tottering stead and the presidential feet have remained wobbly since then. The mindless and sudden removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira a few days later, have remained the administration’s albatross because the twin-policy missteps are the roots of the economic mesh into which the nation has been plunged since then.

Less than 48 hours after Tinubu put paid to  fuel subsidy with presidential fiat, petrol price went up steeply from N189 per litre to between N480 and N540 per litre, over 200 per cent increase. Today, it averagely sells for N650 per litre. It even soared to as high as between N800 and N1,000 per litre at the peak of the recent fuel shortages.
And because of the intrinsic multiplier effects of fuel on our national life, the subsidy miscalculation came to exacerbate the negative outlook of an already precarious and tottering economy, which, like we noted earlier, had slid into two recessions in the last eight years (2016 and 2020).

It has deepened the misery of the average Nigerian and ramped up serious socio- psychological dislocations. The quality of life has continued to depreciate, racing fast towards a slough. The momentary fuel price hike almost immediately shot up the costs of living beyond the rooftops. Prices of essential goods and services, including those of foods and pharmaceuticals as well as transport fares, among others, spiralled astronomically, resulting in a huge yelp of pains, anguish and hunger across the land.

Tinubu came in 12 months ago, after a most rancorous presidential contest, waving the flag of renewed hope at Nigerians. His famed Renewed Hope Agenda is encapsulated in an eight-agenda of food security, poverty eradication, economic growth, job creation, access to capital, inclusion, rule of law and fighting corruption.

To what extent has he kept faith with Nigerians on these promises? Today, one year after, it is regrettable that the socio-economic outlook is generally grimmer and gloomier! The erosion of the quality of life, resulting from the economic quagmire simmering since the last decade, has peaked into despair, deeper misery and forlornness.

Sympathizers of the Tinubu administration had argued that it had no other choice than to withdraw fuel subsidy because there were virtually no more funds in the government’s kitty to continue to sustain the monumental fraud called fuel subsidy.

True, this administration inherited from the Buhari government an economy that could best be described as a ‘carcass.’ That realization was why protests against the subsidy removal were at best mild or feeble, in the first place. Even the labour unions which offered a lame protest soon caved in to the government’s appeals for understanding. It (government) was easily able to stymie the strike threat from the labour unions through negotiations and the promise of a robust regime of palliatives to cushion the effects of the subsidy pains.

The truth of the matter was that majority of Nigerians actually sympathized with the Tinubu administration because of the heavy liabilities handed over to it by the Buhari government. People acquiesced to the withdrawal with equanimity and bore the pains with patriotic stoicism in the hope that the funds saved from it would be channelled into fecund ventures that will, on the long run, ease off the hardships.

Indeed, the withdrawal of subsidy was ordinarily expected to yield a lot of positives if the accruing savings had been properly channelled to development, as the president had promised. One of the reasons he (Tinubu) adduced for the subsidy removal was that it had “increasingly favoured the rich more than the poor.” It is, however, saddening that today, one year after, the post-subsidy arrangement not only continues to favour the rich more, it has further widened the gap between them, plummeting the vulnerable population into the nadir of misery and deprivations.

The life of the average Nigerian has further depreciated. As poverty deepens and the pangs of hunger wallop harder, ‘executive begging,’ which used to be an aside pastime, has taken the centre stage. This denotes a situation where otherwise able-bodied, normal middle class people stoop low to stylishly beg or solicit for means of feeding their families and meeting other basic domestic needs! The mood is getting techier by the day. More and more Nigerians are easily riled up by inconsequential altercations.

Today, a year after, the implementation of the regime of palliatives — a N500 billion vote, planned purchase of 3,000 mass transit buses, students’ loan scheme and payment of additional N35,000 allowance for federal workers — put together by this administration to cushion the effects of subsidy is ostensibly dismal. Only the students’ loan scheme, which is just about to begin, and additional allowance for federal workers had been clearcut out of those promises.

If palliatives, in form of food items and the like, were actually provided at all, they did not reach the vulnerable population who really need them. Apart from Lagos, which created special markets where essential food items are being sold at rock bottom prices, and a few other states that distributed a few items, most of the governors, through whom those subsidy funds were channelled, probably provided palliatives for their cronies.

Indeed, the cries of hunger and hardships have reached a strindent pitch as the nation marks one year of a new democratic government. Inflation today continues to spiral. According to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), it climbed to 33.69 per cent in April, 2024, its highest since March, 1996, up from 33.2 per cent in the previous month. This, the report says, is the 16th consecutive month of acceleration of inflation, majorly as a result of the continued plummeting of naira value and the after effects of fuel subsidy removal.

Food inflation, which accounts for the chunk of the nation’s inflation basket, rose steeply to 40.5 per cent in April, 2024, as opposed to the 40 per cent recorded in March. NBS’ report says additional upward pressure came mostly from prices of housing and utilities— 28.8 per cent in April, compared to 27.6 per cent in March, and transportation— 25.4 per cent in April against 25.5 per cent in the previous month. This trend is attributed to the recent electricity tariff hike and upsurge in fuel prices due to the recent acute shortages.

The nation’s unemployment rate, according to the latest Labour Force Survey, surged to 5.0 per cent in the Third Quarter of 2023, up from 4.2 per cent in the previous quarter. That is in spite of the president’s promise to channel part of the subsidy savings to creating jobs “that will improve the lives of millions.”

Of course, a lot of savings have been raked in since the subsidy withdrawal and revenue has ballooned for the three tiers of government— federal, state and local governments — through their monthly allocations. In fact, they now share allocations in trillions. But like farts vamoose almost immediately they are released, the populace only read about the share of allocations, the humongous funds do not reflect concomitantly in the quality of life of the people.

In these austere times that demand frugality and sobriety, the governors, most especially, are still dissipating resources into ostentation and outright profligacy. They are making outlandish appointments and expanding bureaucracy, appointing a risible retinue of aides they visibly do not need, while their people roast in the cauldron of misery all around them.

The increasing pangs of hunger in the land stirred a slew of spontaneous food protests around February, 2024. Unable to bear the brunts of astronomical rise in the prices of essential foodstuffs any further, Nigerians seeped into the streets and roads state after state,clutching placards and calling the attention of the authorities to their plight.

Some criminal-minded elements took undue advantage of the food protests to break into government’s warehouses carting away bags upon bags of rice.

In spite of the enormity of hardships unleashed on the populace by its harsh economic reforms, it is unthinkable that the Tinubu administration could impose any further burden on Nigerians. But that is what it did with the electricity tariff hike. The titanic public outrage against the policy might have, however, mitigated government’s impulsion over the hike. The government stratified the populace into five bands, A to E. Only Band A customers are to pay the new tariff — hiked from N70 kilowatts per hour to N225 k/h.  The tariffs will be staggered for the other bands within three years.

The government’s seeming prevarication on the turnaround maintenance (TAM) of the Port Harcourt refinery is another area the Tinubu government has let down the people. The first plant being currently rehabilitated has the installed capacity of 60, 000 litres per day and is able to meet the  current local demand of 46, 000 litres/day, a 30 per cent reduction from the pre-subsidy removal 66.7 million litres/day figure. The second plant, which is slated for fourth quarter of this year, has 150,000 litres per day capacity, making a total of 210,000 litres per day.

The first phase was completed on schedule in December, 2023 and the test run was to be completed in January, 2024. It was later announced that the plant would start production in April. But a month after, nothing has been heard again. The fear is that the hawks, whose stock in trade is to sabotage the rehabilitation of the refineries to ensure the nation continues to import fuel for their pecuniary interests, are at work.

In essence, the Tinubu administration has failed to deliver on its promises on food security, poverty alleviation, and job creation. And in terms of economic growth, it is not cheering news either because the growth rate declined in the First Quarter of 2024 as opposed to the Fourth Quarter of 2023.

“Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real times in the First Quarter of 2024. This growth rate is higher than the 3.31 per cent recorded in the First Quarter of 2023 and lower than the Fourth Quarter of 2023 growth of 3.46 per cent,” the latest NBS’ report says.

There are, however, some positives. Even though insecurity is still a problem, the administration’s campaign against bandits-cum-kidnappers and insurgents has recorded some relatively positive impact. The gallant troops have been dealing serious blows on the murderous goons and neutralized hundreds of thousands of their fighters through relentless and successful raids and expeditions.
If the current tempo is sustained, the terrorists’ threat to our territorial integrity will be drastically curtailed.

On the area of judiciary and rule of law, even though allegations of nepotism concerning strategic appointments to the bench are rife, the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), is engineering silent reforms that may address some areas of concern, including sleaze and graft, in that sector. They include a drastic upward review of judges’ salaries and emoluments as well as harmonizing the retirement ages at the Supreme Court and that of the lower bench.

Again, there tends to be a more serious approach to the fight against corruption as more and more past political leaders, who have questions to answer about their tenures, are coming into the radar of the anti-grant agencies, with some facing prosecution.

Besides, on a personal note, President Tinubu has proved to be a listening leader who is responsive to public sensibilities. This is unlike his predecessor, Muhammudu Buhari, who was glaringly unfeeling about public outcries to many of his policies.

Tinubu demonstrated this side of his during the nationwide food protests when he conveyed a series of meetings, which took a wide range of decisions. Whether or not those decisions produced results is another matter. And of course, he bowed to the people’s will by suspending the Cybersecurity levy, which caused a national uproar recently.

It is instructive that President Tinubu also ordered the implementation of the Oronsaye report in response to the public outcry to cut the costs of governance by  reducing profligacy and waste.

There is also no doubt that the president is an audacious and intrepid leader who has the courage of his convictions. But how he ends up after his first term in 2027 depends on how he is able to deploy some of these personal attributes to retrace his steps, return to the drawing board and pursue his Renewed Hope Agenda with ‘home-grown’ strategies, just like the Asian Tigers were able to free their economies from the imperialists who do not mean well for the third world.

He should stop pandering to the dictates of Brettwood Institutions, the Word Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose disguised prescriptive tonic spews nothing but poverty, misery and economic ‘kwashiorkor’ for Nigeria and Africa, as has been seen in the last one year.

 

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