When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu mounted the saddle two years ago, he did not hide his proclivity for tough decisions. It was a cardinal point he harped upon at the inauguration of his presidency on May 29, 2023. It was his answer to navigating the socio-economic labyrinthine landscape his administration inherited from the Buhari regime.
He was handed a deeply fractured economy bedraggled on the sick bay and a pervasive insecurity, hallmarked by an orgy of kidnapping-for-ransom, which was becoming a business venture, and mindless killings by bandits as well as ferocious herders all over.
To recalibrate the nation’s socio-economic trajectory, the Tinubu administration resorted to aggressive reforms, which momentarily threw the economy into a tailspin. And two years down the line, the headwinds remain patently rough.
A critical x-ray of the administration on the mid-term mark reveals a mixed bag of muffled, cautious optimism, sounded by economists over the radical economic reforms,on one hand, and intensified hardships for the larger population, on the other.
One of the boldest and arguably the most audacious decisions President Tinubu’s administration it took immediately assuming office was the removal of subsidy on fuel, which had for decades been a big knot and from which successive administrations before, including military regimes, had shied away. Economists and particularly the International Monetary Fund(IMF) had lauded the decision as a necessary option to curb wasteful spending, free government’s revenue and redirect funds to the productive and other critical sectors of the economy.
However, the immediate impact of the withdrawal on the populace was severely punishing. Fuel prices skyrocketed, triggering a domino effect that sent transportation costs, food prices, and general costs of living spiraling upwards. This inflationary pressure was further exacerbated by the unification of the foreign exchange rates, leading to a significant devaluation of the Naira.
Although it was intended to attract foreign investment and rationalize the currency market, the Naira’s continued weakness against the dollar and other major currencies has crippled businesses that rely on imports and eroded the purchasing power of average Nigerians.
The current inflation rate hovering around 32% underscores the profound economic discomfort felt across the nation, making daily survival a gruelling ordeal for many households. Despite government’s pronouncements of attracting foreign direct investment, the tangible benefits of these reforms are yet to translate into widespread economic relief for the larger population.
While the government continues to thaw out the people to show understanding over its tough decisions as a necessary sacrifice for salvaging the comatose economy, the twin-harsh policies—subsidy removal and floating of the Naira— foisted on the larger population an unprecedented regime of hunger, poverty and misery.
The hardship was so pervasive that Nigerians trooped to the streets early August, last year, to protest it. It was a ferocious display of angst termed ‘10 days of rage.’ The violent protest, believed to have been sponsored by fifth columnists, led to a massive destruction of government property, especially in some northern cities.
The mayhem was preceded earlier in the year, precisely February, 2024, by sporadic ant-hunger protests in Lagos, Ogun, the Federal Capital Territory(FCT), Kano, Minna, among others. Some incensed youths some days after also started pillaging government warehouses in FCT, Minna, Suleija, Zaria, among other cities. Private trucks were not spared. The hoodlums carted away tens of hundreds of bags of rice, corn, and other grains.
The ghost of hunger also strutted down South and manifested in December, last year, in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, Abuja and Anambra where total of 74 Nigerians lost their lives in stampedes while struggling to benefit from food items being handed by some benefactors.
The Tinubu presidency is, however, responsive to the hunger and misery in town. The government did arrange periodic palliatives to cushion the effects of its harsh economic reforms. These came in form of food items and cash transfers to the vulnerable population. The authorities put in a student loan policy to provide succour for indigent students in public universities.
The blight that has whittled down the positive effects of these palliatives is shoddy and tardy implementation. For example, very few of the palliatives routed through the states trinkled down to the vulnerable segments of the population that really needed them.
Complaints are also strindent that the students loan arrangement has not been very effective. For one, critics complain that the implementation is veering off course by including students of private universities who hardly need the loan because most of them come from relatively well-heeled families. Some parents also bemoan that their children who applied for the loan last year are yet to get it. These are concerns that the relevant authorities need to urgently address.
However, in the midst of the gloomy outlook, some economists say that the administration’s aggressive and harsh policies have begun to yield some positives. For example, the nation’s overall Debt Stock, both external and domestic, of the Federal Government, the 36 states and the FCT, were said to have gone down from $108.2billion dollars to $94billion dollars as of December 31, 2024.
The administration has also cleared all the verified foreign exchange backlog of about $7billion, which made some foreign airlines to threaten to exit the country. Portfolio investment inflows, which measure investors’ confidence in a country, rose by 105 percent to $13.35billion in 2024. The renewed investors’ confidence in Nigeria is said to be largely driven by the administration’s bold macroeconomic reforms.
The IMF also recently confirmed that Nigeria has fully repaid the $3.4billion financial support it received under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to cushion the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF’s Resident Representative for Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke, said the repayment was completed on April 30, 2025.
He clarified that Nigeria would, however, continue to make annual payments of approximately $30million in SDR-related charges over the next few years. This, according to economic analysts, is good news for Nigeria because the repayment would boost the country’s international credit rating and strengthen the Naira.
The reforms are said to have significantly improved the revenues of the states. The states and the FCT now receive more money monthly from the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). They are now in a financial position to execute projects that have direct impact on the lives of the people, and also pay the new minimum wage of N70,000.
How well the states are using these increased revenues in their kitties, however, remains to be seen. While many of the states are yet to fully implement the new minimum wage, they are largely given to profligacy and ostentatious lifestyles in the midst of the misery that continues to wallop their people.
However, beyond the economy, the resurgence of insurgency and banditry, despite the earlier significant successes recorded by the Tinubu administration in that sphere, and the negative signals on the political horizon are deeply concerning. Tackling terrorism has been one of the cardinal priorities of this administration.
But that task is becoming daunting with the recent reverses in the initial gains recorded along that line in which the war machine of the bandits especially was almost decimated and many terrorist kingpins deleted.
The Northeast continues to grapple with the lingering menace of Boko Haram and its offshoots, as the insurgents are now recouping much of the grounds lost to the military. Attacks persist, leading to continued displacement of communities and a climate of fear that hampers humanitarian efforts and economic activity in the region.
Similarly, the Northwest and parts of the North Central are in the throes of an escalating wave of banditry, kidnapping for ransom, and communal violence. These murderous goons have become increasingly sophisticated and brazen, targeting schools, farmlands, and entire villages.
Stretched almost to breaking point fighting on so many fronts, our otherwise gallant troops appear to be losing steam and fatigue settling in, leaving many citizens vulnerable and questioning the efficacy of the current security architecture.
Borno State Governor, Zulum recently raised an alarm that the nation was on the verge of losing an entire Marte local government area of the state to the insurgents, a development that would pose considerable challenge to the campaign against the daredevils.
This is coming against the backdrop of the explication of internal sabotage and betrayal that is exacerbating the convoluted anti-terror war. We admonish the top hierarchy of the military to put the necessary machinery in place to mend their leaking roofs by ferreting out saboteurs and moles in the system hobnobbing with the enemies and deal decisively with them.
The political horizon is getting rather grubby, raising concerns about the fate of multi-party democracy, on one hand, and on the other, the political atmosphere is becoming too rumbustious for an administration that has just grossed the mid-term mark.
First, though cross-carpeting is normal in democracy, defections from the opposition parties to the ruling All Progressive Congress(APC) are raising eyebrows because of the frequency. This is unhealthy for a vibrant multi- party democracy. In an earlier editorial on the subject, headlined: “Gale of defections: In whose interest?,” we posited thus:
“However, while it will be unfair to blame Tinubu and his political camp for cashing in on the PDP’s near-implosion to weaken the opposition by ‘poaching’ its high-profile members, we are calling the ruling party’s attention to the inherent dangers in decimating the opposition outright.
“Without knowing, we may be tending toward a one-party system, which will be inimical to vibrant democracy, which remains the best form of government. Democracy towers above all other forms of government because it inherently guarantees freedoms; freedoms of speech and association.
“The beauty of democracy is also the guarantee of plurality of ideas and choices, which is engendered by multiparty structures. But when we, advertently or inadvertently, decimate the opposition and nurture a hulk of a party, we limit the power of choices and enthrone dictatorship and authoritarianism.
“Besides, a vibrant opposition is essential in a democracy because it acts as a check on power and keeps it on its toes. The absence of choices and a vibrant opposition is the enthronement of dictatorship and despotism. We must guard against those extremes in the interest of our renascent democracy.”
Second, the unusual boisterousness in politicking just two years into a four- year term is clearly risible and incautious for a government that is beset with a myriad of socio- economic challenges to grapple with. In a glaring display of psycophantic and servile inclinations rather than love or loyalty, interest groups, including the APC governors and federal legislators are abandoning the more serious business of government, trying to outdo one another in endorsing President Tinubu for 2027 presidential race is not only grossly insensitive, it amounts to jumping the gun.
These are activities that usually take place at the twilights of an outgoing government so they do not disrupt state duties. High-stake politicking at this time is thus risible and a dereliction of official responsibility.
President Tinubu should thus call off his army of sycophants and redirect the energy they are dissipating into frivolous politicking at this stage to addressing the more serious business of governance as they trudge the last two years of the administration’s first term.
