Nigeria could face rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, food shortages and water supply challenges as a strengthening El Niño influences global weather patterns into early 2027.
The climate phenomenon has also been projected to cause 31,400 deaths in Nigeria over the next six months, according to the report.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Although the Pacific is far from Nigeria, the warming can alter atmospheric circulation, influencing rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world.
Its effects vary by location, but changes in rainfall and temperature can affect agriculture, water supplies, food production and prices.
Recent hot conditions and irregular rainfall have raised concerns about the possible effects of the phenomenon. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), in its August 2026 update, confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño.
Northern Nigeria is expected to be particularly exposed to its potential effects. Rainfall deficits and dry spells have already affected parts of Borno, Yobe, Kebbi, Sokoto, Bauchi, Gombe and Plateau states, some of which are important food-producing areas.
The effects of El Niño can also be felt beyond Nigeria. BBC Weather reported that Indonesia had recorded nearly 896,000 hectares of land burnt during its worst wildfire season since 2015.
What is El Niño?
El Niño occurs when the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remain warmer than usual for an extended period.
This warming affects winds and the movement of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, potentially changing rainfall patterns and temperatures in other parts of the world.
It is part of a climate cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Its opposite phase, La Niña, occurs when the same Pacific waters become cooler than usual. When neither phase is present, conditions are described as ENSO-neutral.
El Niño events generally occur every two to seven years and typically last between nine and 12 months, although some continue for longer.
However, El Niño does not automatically make every country hotter or drier. It changes the likelihood of certain weather conditions, with impacts depending on location and the time of year.
Six ways El Niño could affect Nigerians
1. Longer dry spells and irregular rainfall
One possible effect is an extended period without rain in areas where rainfall is already limited or seasonal.
Farmers who rely on rain to grow crops could face difficulties if dry spells occur at critical stages of plant development. Delayed rainfall or an early end to the rainy season could also shorten the period available for cultivation.
2. Reduced food production and rising prices
Nigeria’s Middle Belt, within the North-Central region, is an important food-producing area.
If dry spells or flooding affect farming communities, crops could be damaged and harvests reduced, leaving less food available in markets.
Lower food supplies could put additional upward pressure on prices, worsening the financial strain on households already struggling with the cost of living.
3. Higher temperatures and heat-related illnesses
El Niño can contribute to higher global temperatures, increasing the likelihood of unusually hot conditions.
Extreme heat can make outdoor work more difficult and raise the risk of heat-related illnesses. Farmers, construction workers and market traders may find it harder to work for extended periods during the hottest hours.
Higher temperatures could also increase the use of fans and air conditioners, potentially raising electricity bills.
4. Water shortages and pressure on livestock
Prolonged periods of insufficient rainfall can reduce the replenishment of water sources. Grass and other vegetation needed by livestock may also become scarce.
Herders could struggle to find enough water and suitable grazing land for their animals. Poor pasture conditions may affect livestock health and productivity, threatening pastoralists’ livelihoods and potentially reducing the supply of animal products.
The severity of these effects will depend on the duration of dry spells and the availability of water, grazing areas and other support.
5. Heavy rainfall and flooding
Although El Niño is associated with dry conditions in some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding remain possible.
Other weather systems can produce intense rainfall even after prolonged hot and dry periods. When rivers and lakes overflow, nearby communities may be flooded.
Flash floods can also occur when the ground cannot absorb heavy rainfall quickly or drainage systems are inadequate. Flooding may damage crops, wash away seeds and displace people in vulnerable communities.
6. Increased risk of diseases and infections
Changes in temperature and rainfall can influence the spread of some diseases in Nigeria.
Flooding can contaminate drinking water with sewage and waste, increasing the risk of waterborne illnesses such as cholera and diarrhoea.
Hotter conditions and changing rainfall patterns may also affect mosquito breeding and malaria transmission in some areas.
How Nigerians can prepare for El Niño
Although the effects will vary across the country, residents can take practical steps to reduce their exposure to heat, water shortages and flooding.
Stay hydrated and protect yourself from heat. Drink clean water regularly, wear light, loose-fitting clothing and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours.
Check on vulnerable people. Young children, older people, pregnant women and people with existing health conditions may be more susceptible to heat-related illness and may need additional support.
Prepare for heavy rainfall and flooding. Clear gutters and drainage channels around your home. Keep important documents, medicines and electrical appliances in safe places above potential floodwater levels.
Plan for possible water shortages. Store clean drinking water in covered containers where possible, and avoid unnecessary waste if shortages affect your area.
Prepare for changes in food prices. Buy essential non-perishable foods within your budget and use existing supplies before purchasing more. Avoid panic-buying.
Follow reliable weather updates. El Niño does not mean every part of Nigeria will experience extreme heat, drought or flooding. Monitor local forecasts and respond to the risks predicted for your area rather than relying on rumours or general warnings.