According to a new analysis released on Tuesday by the Centre for Democracy and Development, a leading pro-democracy think tank, insecurity in the North-West may affect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s performance as the APC’s presidential candidate.
However, the organization warned that secessionist agitations in the South-East could lower voter turnout, which might not favor either Peter Obi, the presidential candidate for the Labour Party, or Abubakar Atiku, the candidate for the Peoples Democratic Party.
This information was provided by the CDD in a study titled “Nigeria’s Presidential Polls: A SWOT Analysis,” which was published on Tuesday in Abuja.
The organization issued a warning that the legitimacy of the elections in 2023 may be harmed by growing insecurity, false information, money politics, religion, and ethnic narratives.
The Independent National Electoral Commission will need nearly 1.5 million election and security officials, according to the report authored by CDD Director Idayat Hassan.
“Key governance issues, such as insecurity, will be a factor in the political calculations for the major contenders as they cross the country,” the research stated in part.
“The report noted that in the North West, the hot button issue of security of lives and property would have an impact on the performance of the APC candidate, Tinubu.
“At the same time, the secessionist agitations in the South East could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party standard bearer, Peter Obi, or Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Abubakar Atiku.”
The CDD acknowledged that the 2023 general election would involve a major logistical operation, but added that there would be significant logistical difficulties in getting election materials to the 176,846 polling places.
The organization estimated that about 1.5 million poll and security officials would need to be hired and trained for such a broad-reaching level of deployment to be successful.
According to the pro-democracy research group, this would need the deployment of personnel who total approximately four times as many as the Nigerian military as a whole.
If not properly handled, the research claims that the damaging effects of race, religion, and money politics might also erode the legitimacy and acceptability of the elections.
CDD said that the polarizing elements have already influenced the emergence of the four major party candidates for the upcoming presidential election.
The Electoral Act 2022 has elicited possibilities that could reshape elections in Nigeria, the research noted.
