Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Finance has dismissed claims that the country’s $12.4 billion negative balance of payments residual in the first half of 2026 indicates missing funds or withheld oil revenue.
In a statement issued on Tuesday and signed by Maryann Duke, the ministry’s senior special assistant, communications and press secretary, the ministry said reports had misrepresented the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) by presenting the residual as an unexplained gap in Nigeria’s external accounts.
According to the ministry, the World Bank described the figure as “net errors and omissions”, a standard balancing item used when records of a country’s external transactions do not fully reconcile.
“It does not mean money has gone missing, been stolen or been withheld. It is not an account or a sum held anywhere,” the ministry said.
The ministry said the World Bank suggested that the residual “likely” reflected unrepatriated oil proceeds only “in part”, while noting that gaps in data could also have contributed to the figure.
It added that the report did not identify any specific amount, company or cargo associated with the residual, arguing that some media reports had wrongly suggested that $12.4 billion in oil earnings had been lost or withheld.
The ministry also pointed to figures in the same World Bank report showing that Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $12 billion in the first half of 2026. It said gross external reserves increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.
“These facts were overshadowed by the media’s headline framing. An economy losing US$12 billion in six months would not be adding over US$8 billion to its reserves,” the statement reads.
Explaining the balance of payments, the ministry said it captures economic transactions between residents of a country and the rest of the world through current, capital and financial accounts.
It noted that the figures are compiled from different sources, including customs records, oil liftings and banks. According to the ministry, reports showing discrepancies indicate “that data sources disagree, not why”.
The ministry added that Nigeria had recorded a negative residual in seven of the past eight years. World Bank data cited in the statement showed figures ranging from a positive $17 billion in 2020 to a negative $24.9 billion in 2023.
It also referenced figures from other countries, noting that the United States recorded negative residuals of $138 billion in 2023 and $97 billion in 2025, while the United Kingdom recorded a positive $23.6 billion in 2024. Brazil, meanwhile, recorded a negative $5.7 billion.
Factors behind the residual
The ministry identified under-recorded remittances, informal cross-border trade, delayed export payments and provisional data as possible contributors to the first-half 2026 figure.
It estimated that about $10 billion in remittances moves through informal channels or remains abroad annually, meaning such funds may not pass through banks or enter official foreign reserve records.
The ministry also said imports and exports across land borders, alongside services such as education, healthcare and digital payments, may not be fully captured in official statistics.
Regarding oil revenue, it explained that cargoes are recorded when lifted, although payments may take between 30 and 90 days to arrive.
It added that oil companies and their partners may lawfully retain their share of proceeds abroad, while crude cargoes linked to loan arrangements may be used to repay lenders offshore.
“These are not leakages. They show up in the residual when the related foreign assets or debt repayments of the whole economy, not just government, are not fully recorded,” the ministry said.
According to the ministry, such transactions may contribute to the residual when related foreign assets or debt repayments across the wider economy are not fully captured in the data.
It stressed that the figures were preliminary and could be revised as returns from companies and banks became available.
The ministry said it would continue working with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other relevant agencies to improve the recording of external transactions.
It also urged commentators and media organisations to consult subject-matter experts on technical financial issues and avoid what it described as “hasty and invalid conclusions”.