IMF cuts Nigeria growth outlook to 4.1%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth forecast downward to 4.1 per cent, citing the continuing economic impact of the Middle East conflict.
The adjustment was disclosed during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials cautioned that war-induced energy and supply disruptions are weakening recovery across the region.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that the downgrade highlights wider challenges confronting energy-importing nations.
“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Gourinchas noted.
“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly — for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers.”
He added that the Fund is closely engaging with several countries to assess their needs under current conditions, while collaborating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank regarding disruptions in energy markets.
Further remarks from Denz Igan, head of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, indicated that the 0.3 percentage point reduction reflects competing economic pressures.
“War-related higher fuel and fertilizer prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” Igan said. “There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027.”
The IMF also projects that median inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa will increase from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2026, driven by elevated oil and fertiliser prices, possible fuel shortages, and rising costs.
Regarding Nigeria, she emphasised that strict monetary policy will be essential to meet the central bank’s inflation target.
The Fund further noted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa declined by between 16 and 20 per cent in 2025, removing a significant buffer at a time when commodity and shipping costs are surging.