Iran’s regime is consolidating power — US intelligence
US intelligence assessments say Iran’s clerical regime is likely to remain in place for now, weakened but more hardline, even after more than two weeks of relentless US-Israeli airstrikes, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) exerting greater control over the country according to Washington Post.
According to a report by the Washington Post, the US and Israel have significantly degraded Iran’s missile capability and navy, killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and wiped out several top military and intelligence leaders. However, the war’s costs are mounting, with at least $12 billion spent and 13 US troops killed, and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz resulting in a historic oil disruption.
Western officials and analysts said they see little near-term prospect of a “regime change” end to the 47-year-old Islamic Republic or the rise of a more democratic government, which is the goal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
US intelligence assessments have predicted that Iran’s regime will likely remain intact and possibly even in a stronger place than before, believing it has stood up to Trump and survived, two people familiar with the assessments told the Washington Post.
According to a European official, the likeliest postwar scenario is a “rump IRGC regime” in Tehran that will retain some nuclear and missile capabilities and the support of regional proxies, though the regime will be “degraded enough that we’re in a better place than we were.
One of the officials familiar with the intelligence reports said Trump had been receiving “very sobering briefings” and was informed about the possibility of a more emboldened IRGC before he proceeded with the war alongside Israel. “It was predicted. He was told in advance,” the official said.
Meanwhile, US allies in the Gulf are reportedly furious with the Trump administration as the conflict rages on. “They started this war for Israel and then left us to face the attacks by ourselves,” said a senior Arab official from the Gulf.
The Arab official said the Trump administration had previously informed allies that the military confrontation would be quick, but now it is abundantly clear that Iran wants to drag the conflict to inflict more pain on its neighbours. The conflict has already imposed economic costs on US allies, who were not consulted before the airstrikes.
Furthermore, Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz – which ships 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flow – is shaping up to be the decisive factor in the war, as oil prices rose above $100 per barrel. Iran has effectively shut the strategic waterway with drones and naval mines, choking energy flows.
Trump has rallied allies to send warships in an attempt to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but this plan has been met with reluctance from US partners. Iran’s strategy is to hold firm, use its leverage over the strait to force the US to de-escalate and hope Trump does not have the stomach for a long fight, as per the report.
Despite confusion among members of the Iranian leadership, there are no overt signs of cracks or defections within Iran’s power structure, according to officials. A classified assessment by the National Intelligence Council concluded that even a large-scale assault by the US is unlikely to oust Iran’s military and clerical establishment.