The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upwardly revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 4.2 per cent.
The updated forecast was contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook update, released on Monday.
The IMF’s upward revision of Nigeria’s growth outlook forms part of a broader evaluation of global economic trends, which the Fund expects to remain largely stable in the years ahead.
Overall, the figures indicate that Nigeria’s improved projection aligns with gradual and broad-based economic strengthening across the region, rather than representing an isolated adjustment.
The revised forecast builds on a phase of significant economic realignment in Nigeria, driven by policy reforms and efforts to restore macroeconomic stability.
In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had placed Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.2 per cent, citing persistent concerns over inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural challenges.
Since then, authorities have continued to implement reforms aimed at enhancing fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment, and boosting productivity across key sectors.
The IMF has consistently stressed the role of structural reforms in supporting sustainable growth in emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, regional growth projections were revised upward from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, pointing to a shared recovery across the region.
Globally, the Fund forecasts growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3 per cent growth recorded in 2025.
The IMF noted that this outlook reflects a balance between challenges arising from shifting trade policies and supportive factors such as technology-driven investment, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions.
Global inflation is projected to continue its downward trend, with headline inflation expected to ease from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, before declining further to 3.4 per cent in 2027.