Qatar’s energy minister, Saad Al-Kaabi, has warned that global oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel within weeks if tankers remain unable to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz.
Al-Kaabi made the prediction on Friday during an interview with the Financial Times.
On March 2, several major container shipping companies suspended operations through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal due to rising security threats in the Middle East following US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea — serves as the only sea route connecting Gulf oil and gas producers to global markets, making it one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Al-Kaabi warned that energy markets could face serious disruptions if vessels continue to be unable to pass through the strait.
He said crude prices “could reach $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and other vessels remain unable to pass through the strategic waterway”.
The minister also warned that natural gas prices could climb to $40 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu) if supply disruptions persist, which would be nearly four times higher than levels recorded before the conflict.
According to him, if the crisis continues, energy producers across the Gulf region may be forced to declare force majeure, which could result in the suspension of energy deliveries.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Al-Kaabi said.
“If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”
On March 2, QatarEnergy, the country’s state-owned energy company, announced it had halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following Iranian military attacks on its operational facilities.
Addressing the shutdown, Al-Kaabi said authorities are still evaluating the level of damage to the installations.
“We don’t yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not clear yet how long it will take to repair,” he said.
The minister added that even if hostilities ended immediately, it would still take “weeks to months” for Qatar to fully resume normal export operations because of logistical disruptions.
Similarly, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery after a fire broke out due to debris from an Iranian drone strike.
The global supply disruptions have already triggered an increase in petrol prices in Nigeria.
On March 5, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited raised the pump price of petrol at its stations to ₦933 per litre in Lagos and ₦960 per litre in Abuja.
The increase followed a decision by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to raise its ex-gantry petrol price to ₦874 per litre from ₦774 per litre.