The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that the escalating prices of fuel and other essential commodities might provoke social unrest in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Angola, and Kenya.
In its macroeconomic performance and outlook report for 2024, the AfDB issued a cautionary note, forecasting that Africa’s economy would surpass the 3.2% growth recorded in 2023.
The bank projected a rebound in growth to 3.8% for the continent in 2024.
Nonetheless, it warned that a surge in fuel and commodity prices, stemming from currency depreciation or subsidy removal in Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, and Ethiopia, could potentially incite internal conflicts.
It stated, “Internal conflicts and violence could also result from rising prices for fuel and other commodities due to weaker domestic currencies and reforms.
“For instance, the removal of fuel subsidies in Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria and the resulting social costs has led to social unrest driven by opposition to government policy.”
Moreover, the AfDB highlighted that the escalation of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, coupled with the El Nino phenomenon, could induce supply chain disruptions. These disruptions may exacerbate energy and food inflation worldwide, with Africa being particularly susceptible to such shocks.
The escalating cost of living has become a significant concern in Nigeria, prompting some Nigerians to take to the streets in protest in various states recently. This crisis in the cost of living is attributed to the federal government’s policies of removing petrol subsidies and allowing the naira to float.
The protests against the growing hardship commenced in Minna, Niger State, on February 5, with several other states subsequently staging similar demonstrations.
Several prominent figures have begun to voice concerns and issue warnings that if the current situation is not swiftly addressed, matters could worsen.
One such individual is the Sultan of Sokoto, who, during the 6th Executive Committee Meeting of the Northern Traditional Rulers Council in Kaduna on Wednesday, emphasized that economic hardship in Nigeria had escalated to a point where citizens were increasingly agitated, frustrated, and facing hunger.
He specifically cautioned the Federal Government that the severity of hardship, insecurity, poverty, and unemployment in Nigeria, particularly in the North, had reached a critical juncture where pacifying the populace to prevent revolt was becoming increasingly challenging.
“To make matters worse, we are faced with the rising level of poverty amongst our people, lack of normal sources of livelihood for the common man to have even if it is one good meal a day.
“I believe talking of insecurity and the rising level of poverty are two issues that we cannot fold our arms and think everything is okay. I have said it so many times and at so many fora that things are not okay in Nigeria and of course, things are not okay in the North,” he said.
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has announced a two-day nationwide protest in response to the increasing hardship faced by Nigerians and the worsening security conditions in the country.
Addressing reporters at a press conference following an emergency meeting of the National Executive Council (NEC) of the union on Friday, NLC President Joe Ajaero stated that the protest would commence one week after the expiration of the 14-day ultimatum issued to the Federal Government, which lapses on February 23.
The scheduled dates for the nationwide protest are February 27 and 28.