South Korea’s suspended president, Yoon Suk Yeol, remains defiant in his heavily secured residence, with the arrest warrant related to his brief martial law order set to expire on Monday.
Over the weekend, Yoon’s security team, which blocked investigators from arresting him on Friday, set up barbed wire and barricaded the compound with buses to prevent further attempts.
Yoon had previously ignored several summons to face questioning over charges of insurrection and abuse of power, leading investigators to approach his residence, only to cancel their operation after a six-hour standoff with the presidential security service.
Investigators may seek an extension of the warrant, telling the BBC they have requested police involvement in an attempt to give their efforts more authority.
However, the police declined to take over the warrant, stating on Monday that its execution was legally controversial and should be handled by anti-corruption investigators.
Public anger has surged in recent weeks, with thousands of protesters braving heavy snow over the weekend, both supporting and opposing Yoon.
South Korea has been in turmoil for the past month, ever since Yoon attempted to impose martial law, citing a threat from the North and “anti-state forces.” The situation continues to unfold as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Seoul, working to stabilize relations ahead of a potential Donald Trump presidency.
A looming deadline
Time has almost run out for the investigators leading the criminal case against Yoon.
Yoon’s lawyers have claimed that his arrest warrant was “illegal” as the anti-corruption investigators did not have the authority to oversee a case as serious as insurrection.
The presidential security team has cited this as a reason for blocking Yoon’s arrest – along with the fact that Yoon remains a sitting president until the constitutional court rules on his impeachment.
“For the PSS, whose primary mission is the absolute safety of the president, to comply with the execution of an arrest warrant amidst ongoing legal disputes would be tantamount to abandoning its duty,” security service chief Park Jong-joon said on Sunday.
Mr. Park denied accusations that his team was acting as a “private militia” for Yoon.
On Monday, Yoon’s lawyers filed complaints against investigators over the arrest attempt, claiming that Yoon has been “effectively detained” in his residence.
They also filed an injunction to block the warrant, which was rejected by the court, and indicated they may appeal the decision.
Meanwhile, acting president Choi Sang-mok has resisted calls from the opposition to remove key security officials obstructing the arrest.
The BBC understands that opposition lawmakers have urged investigators to make another attempt to arrest Yoon, but with greater force and adequate resources.
Investigators could also apply for a new detention warrant, which would need judicial approval. This would allow for Yoon’s detention for up to 20 days, compared to an arrest warrant, which permits holding him for only 48 hours.
However, without a shift in the situation or their tactics, it seems unlikely that investigators or police will succeed in making the arrest. As seen last Friday, they may once again face obstruction from the presidential security service, which formed a “human wall” around Yoon. He has vowed to “fight to the end,” further dividing public opinion and energizing his supporters, who have been protesting outside his home for days.
The tense standoff has raised serious concerns about the strength and effectiveness of South Korea’s political and legal institutions.
Diplomatic headwinds
The situation also has consequences beyond domestic politics.
Up until last month, the Biden administration had sung Yoon’s praises, delighted by his willingness to work with Washington to tackle the security threats posed by North Korea and China. The US put a lot of effort into helping South Korea repair its strained relations with Japan, so the three countries could address these issues together.
Mr Blinken’s ongoing visit to Seoul, where he will meet South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul on Monday, therefore comes at a difficult time for these two allies.
Yoon did not tell the US about his plans to impose martial law, meaning Washington did not have the chance to dissuade him and was unprepared for the chaos that ensued.
Blinken will not want to be drawn on the current political situation. He will instead want to focus on preserving the trilateral cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo beyond Biden’s tenure.
Speaking during a joint presser on Monday, Blinken said the US had “full confidence” in South Korea’s institutions, and reaffirmed the US government’s “unwavering support for the Korean people as they work tirelessly to uphold those institutions”.
“Over the past four decades Korea has written one of the most powerful, inspiring democratic stories in the world,” Blinken said.
Korea’s democracy has been tested in recent weeks, much like the challenges faced by American democracy throughout its history. However, South Korea is responding by showing its democratic resilience.
That said, it’s difficult to separate the domestic and geopolitical situations. South Korea could be months away from electing a new president, and that leader might seek to shift away from Yoon’s foreign policies.
Meanwhile, with Trump set to enter the White House in two weeks, he will also pursue his own political agenda.