Osun: A willing suitor Vs unwilling bride, By Ismail Omipidan

These are indeed interesting times in Osun State. There is nothing happening today that did not happen in 2014 when Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola was seeking re-election. The key difference, however, is that unlike Governor Ademola Adeleke, Aregbesola never contemplated defecting to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the centre, let alone displayed the kind of desperation we now see from our governor, some of his supporters, and handlers.

Before I go further, let me make a few confessions. I know some people will curse and abuse me for this. That’s nothing new. If you have anything meaningful or constructive to discuss, I’ll gladly engage you. But if your response is limited to insults and curses, may they follow you, Bi’iznillah. Now, to the confessions: I have nothing personal against Governor Adeleke. My opposition to him dates back to 2018 even before I met immediate past Governor of the state, Adegboyega Oyetola.

I recalled that on July 5, 2019, after the Supreme Court’s verdict that confirmed Oyetola as the winner of the 2018 election, I stated among other things that the absence of a strong leadership in the PDP in the South-West contributed to why candidate Ademola Adeleke emerged the party’s flag bearer. I argued that were there to be a strong and coordinated leadership in the zone, it would have ensured candidate Ademola Adeleke did not participate in the primaries, let alone emerged the party’s candidate.

I went further to assert that what played out in Osun in 2018 was not necessarily a show of love for the then “Dancing Senator,” but rather a protest vote, an outpouring of anger against the APC and its leadership in the state. I had supported him in 2017 when he ran for the Senate, largely because I felt the family was not fairly treated by Aregbesola. However, after his election, which, in my view, signalled the beginning of APC’s political decline in Osun, it became clear to me that beyond his dancing, there was little to show in terms of legislative performance.
So, when he declared his interest in the governorship seat in 2018 and I was approached by some top PDP figures outside Osun to lend my support, I made it clear, without mincing words, that he had nothing to offer the state. That position, I must add, has not changed, not then, not now.

It is on that premise that I am compelled to educate some commentators who have been canvassing strongly for our governor to be accorded a red carpet treatment into the APC.

Yes, by virtue of INEC’s position and the Supreme Court verdict, he won the 2022 governorship election by about 27,000 votes, aided, no doubt, by several irregularities, including voting that continued until 11 p.m. in Ede, with the connivance of some security operatives. In the 2023 presidential election, despite Adeleke wielding the full weight of state power and all that comes with it and with the collective working of some top party bigwigs in the state, the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, managed to win Osun by a slim margin of just 10,000 votes.

For the sake of clarity, these are the results of two elections: 2022 Governorship: APC-375,027 (46.63%) PDP-403,371 (50.20%).

2023 Presidential: APC-343,945 (46.91%) PDP-354,366 (48.33%).

Today, however, many of the PDP bigwigs in Osun, including Omoba Dotun Babayemi, Hon. Wole Oke, Kayode Oduoye, and Baba Shuaibu Oyedokun, along with thousands of their supporters across Osun West, Central, and East, have all defected to the APC. These individuals were instrumental in mobilising the votes the PDP recorded in both the 2022 and 2023 elections. Their defection has further strengthened the APC in the state.

With the result of the 2023 presidential election in Osun, if anyone still thinks President Tinubu needs a Adeleke to win Osun in 2027, just know that you are so delusional in your thinking.

At this moment, aside from perhaps Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, there is no politician of note in Osun that is openly aligning with Governor Adeleke. Therefore, admitting the governor into the APC would be not only counterproductive but politically dangerous, especially because the marriage proposal for alliance resembles a case of a willing suitor pursuing an unwilling bride. Any political ‘marriage’ formed under such circumstances is bound to collapse sooner rather than later.

As I pen this down, I’m aware that some supporters and loyalists of Aregbesola are open and willing to return to the APC. However, Ademola Adeleke’s defection would certainly make them change their minds.

If those within the APC who often boast of being political savvy, yet have little to show in terms of results, succeed in bringing Governor Ademola Adeleke into the party for their own selfish interests, these scenarios are likely to unfold.

First, those who left the PDP for the APC because of the governor may be forced to dump the party and possibly team up with Rauf Aregbesola and work against APC’s interests. Second, long-standing APC members who, out of principle, choose to stay may undermine the party from within, particularly during elections, by quietly working for the candidate of the Aregbesola-led ADC. Third, another group within the APC will simply adopt a “siddon look” posture, withdrawing from active participation altogether. None of these scenarios is good for the APC and the damage may be long-lasting.

Finally, I do not believe our governor ranks among our first eleven in Osun. Having given us his best so far, I make bold to say that another four years under his leadership would be nothing short of tragic for the state and its people. We have endured enough from our governor — the gaffes, the embarrassing moments, and the less-than-ideal optics. Even in the entertainment sector, where many expected him to make a mark given his well-known dancing prowess, there’s been little to show after nearly three years in office. Eyi ti won se to. E je ki won mu omi si. For the sake of Osun’s future, let’s try another hand, please.

 

Omipidan, a journalist and an author writes from Abuja and can be reached @OmipidanIsmail