The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of the Economist Magazine, has predicted that the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, will defeat incumbent President Buhari in 2019 presidential election.
This EIU made the latest prediction in its country report on Nigeria, dated October 17, which was obtained on Thursday, October 25.
According to the London based magazine, “The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that the President, Muhammadu Buhari, will lose power at the February 2019 elections and that the next government will be led by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, although his administration will be fragile.
“Buhari is the APC’s presidential candidate and his main challenger is Abubakar, who was recently nominated PDP’s candidate with overwhelming backing from the party.
“Abubakar’s pledge is to reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms. Both candidates are from the northern Nigeria, where Buhari’s support base lies, presaging a fierce contest there. “With the vote likely to be split in the north, Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP.
“This gives Abubakar an edge, as does popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria. Nonetheless, strong incumbency advantages in Nigeria imply that it will be a tight race.
“If Abubakar loses a distinct downside risk to our forecast there may be a rejection of the result by the PDP, which is convinced that election will be rigged.
In this scenario, a state of national paralysis could arise with severe national security implication.” “We forecast that currency depreciation will keep annual inflation elevated at an average rate of 13.9 per cent in 2019 -2020.
The EIU also predicted “ongoing severe outbreaks of instability, given slow progress on tracking numerous security and societal challenges at a time of economic difficulty.”
“Without a collective resolve, it would prove impossible to bring permanent peace to the large parts of Nigeria hit variously by an insurgency in the north, ethno-nationalism tensions and disputes over land access across the centre of the country.
“It will prove to be hard to build a more effective security apparatus while also creating economic opportunities for local population; poverty lies at the root of much of the instability.
“Our central forecast is, however, that the 2019 elections will be completed without a widespread breakdown of stability with Nigeria’s democracy proving once again to be robust enough to endure
“Given the severe risks to stability, speculation over the threat of a military coup or a civil war is likely to surface periodically.” The Economist’s forecast came less than two months after it had earlier predicted that Buhari would lose the election.
