Osun 2026: Seven local governments that could determine winner

As the Osun governorship election scheduled for Saturday, August 15, the contest has narrowed into a closely watched battle involving incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji and ADC candidate Najeem Salaam. All three leading contenders are from Osun West, making the distribution of votes across key local government areas particularly important. 

The 2022 election showed just how important the spread of votes across the 30 local government areas can be. Adeleke defeated then-incumbent Gboyega Oyetola with 403,371 votes to Oyetola’s 375,027, a margin of 28,344 votes.

As voters prepare to decide the next governor, these seven LGAs stand out because of their voting strength, political history, candidate connections and the level of competition expected in them.

1. Osogbo

Osogbo, the state capital, is arguably one of the biggest prizes in the election.

The LGA produced 54,997 valid votes in 2022, with Adeleke securing 30,401 votes against Oyetola’s 22,952.

The 2026 contest, however, is expected to be much more competitive. Adeleke has the backing of the Ataoja of Osogbo, while APC heavyweights, including Senator Ajibola Basiru, are working to strengthen the party’s position. Najeem Salaam is also expected to benefit from the influence of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola in the area.

Given its large electorate and political importance as the state capital, even a modest shift in Osogbo could have a significant impact on the statewide result.

2. Olorunda

Neighbouring Olorunda is another crucial battleground.

In 2022, Adeleke won the LGA with 21,350 votes, while Oyetola polled 18,709. The council recorded 41,187 valid votes.

This time, the three leading candidates have reasons to target the area. Adeleke retains support from political and traditional figures, the APC is relying on its established structure, while Salaam could benefit from Aregbesola’s influence.

The closeness of the political contest means Olorunda could produce the kind of margin capable of influencing the final statewide tally.

3. Ife Central

Ife Central is part of the three-LGA Ife bloc that could become decisive.

Adeleke’s campaign is expected to perform strongly in the Ife area, with his running mate, Kola Adewusi, and former PDP National Secretary, Wale Oladipo, identified as influential figures. But APC candidate Oyebamiji has his own connection to the area through his running mate, Benjamin Adereti, who hails from Ile-Ife.

That makes Ife Central less of a guaranteed stronghold for either major contender and more of a genuine contest.

4. Iwo

Iwo is another local government to watch closely because of its political importance and competing networks.

Adeleke has the support of former Secretary to the Osun State Government, Moshood Adeoti, who is from Iwo. However, APC’s Amin Ogunbiyi is seen as a potential obstacle to the incumbent’s strength in the area.

The 2022 figures show how competitive Iwo can be. Oyetola won narrowly with 17,421 votes against Adeleke’s 16,914, a difference of just 507 votes.

A similar close contest on Saturday could make every vote count.

5. Ilesa East

Ilesa East is another council where established political loyalties could collide.

Oyebamiji has a local connection and is expected to be competitive in the area. However, Aregbesola’s influence in Ilesa East could benefit Salaam and complicate the APC’s calculations.

The LGA also has a history of closely fought elections. In 2022, Adeleke won 13,769 votes against Oyetola’s 10,777.

With the three leading candidates seeking to consolidate their support, Ilesa East could become an important test of whether traditional party structures still hold.

6. Odo Otin

Odo Otin presents another complicated political equation.

The APC candidate has the backing of the political network associated with former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, which could strengthen the party’s position in the area. However, the presence of Osun State House of Assembly Speaker Wale Egbedun could limit the APC’s advantage.

The 2022 election was extremely close in the LGA: Adeleke polled 14,003 votes while Oyetola received 13,482, a difference of only 521 votes.

That narrow margin underlines why both camps will be watching Odo Otin closely.

7. Ife South

Ife South completes the trio of Ife-area councils that could influence the election.

Adeleke’s camp expects to perform well in Ife South, partly because of the influence of his running mate and other political allies. However, Oyebamiji’s running mate also comes from Ile-Ife, giving the APC an opportunity to compete for votes in the wider Ife axis.

The importance of the area is not simply about winning the LGA. If Adeleke can secure strong margins across Ife Central, Ife East and Ife South, it could strengthen his position statewide. Conversely, an improved APC showing in the three councils could significantly alter the calculations.

Why these seven matter

The seven LGAs do not necessarily represent the only places where the election will be won or lost. Rather, they are among the areas where the major parties face significant competition and where relatively small changes in voting patterns could affect the statewide outcome.

The 2022 result offers a useful reminder. Adeleke’s victory came from winning 17 of the state’s 30 LGAs and accumulating 403,371 votes, compared with Oyetola’s 375,027.

This year’s race is more complicated because the three leading candidates all come from Osun West, potentially dividing votes that might previously have consolidated behind two major contenders. Osun West itself contains 10 LGAs and accounted for a substantial share of the 2022 vote.

With Adeleke defending his record, Oyebamiji seeking to return the APC to power and Salaam attempting to break the traditional two-party pattern, the margins in these battleground LGAs could ultimately prove as important as the outright winners.

The election is scheduled for August 15, 2026, and the final result will depend not only on which candidate wins the most LGAs but on how many votes each contender accumulates across the state’s 30 councils.