Nigeria falls short of OPEC oil production quota again

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Nigeria has once again failed to meet the 1.5 million barrels per day crude oil production quota approved by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

According to the National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report released on Tuesday by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country’s average daily crude oil production stood at about 1.4 million barrels per day, representing roughly 99 per cent of the OPEC quota.

However, total oil production, including condensates, averaged about 1.6 million barrels per day in April.

The development comes despite ongoing efforts by the Federal Government and industry stakeholders to raise production to 2 million barrels per day in a bid to increase revenue, improve foreign exchange earnings, and support the execution of the 2026 budget.

The report showed that Nigeria has continued to fall short of its OPEC crude oil production target, while total production also remained below the 1.84 million barrels per day benchmark contained in the 2026 budget.

The latest figures mean Nigeria has now failed to meet its OPEC allocation for the ninth consecutive month since July 2025.

NUPRC data revealed that combined crude oil and condensate production reached a peak of 1.85 million barrels per day during the month, while the lowest daily output was 1.46 million barrels per day. The April output marked an improvement from March’s 1.55 million barrels per day.

Nigeria’s oil sector has continued to battle challenges including crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and inadequate investment in the upstream industry.

Although production recorded a slight increase in April compared to March, it remained below the country’s OPEC target.

Crude oil production in March stood at 1.38 million barrels per day.

While this represented an increase of 69,000 barrels per day from the 1.31 million barrels per day recorded in February, it was still 117,000 barrels per day below the OPEC quota.

February figures had shown a month-on-month drop of 146,000 barrels per day, widening Nigeria’s deficit against its production allocation.

Nigeria had earlier recorded a modest recovery in January when output rose from 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 to 1.46 million barrels per day before declining sharply again in February 2026.

Previous NUPRC data also showed that crude production dropped from 1.436 million barrels per day in November 2025 to 1.422 million barrels per day in December before recovering slightly in January.

In 2025, Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC quota in nine months, only achieving or slightly surpassing the target in January, June, and July.

The country started 2025 strongly with production of 1.54 million barrels per day in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its OPEC allocation.

However, output slipped below the quota in February at 1.47 million barrels per day and declined further in March to 1.40 million barrels per day.