Turkish opposition shocks Erdogan with local elections victory

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The primary opposition party in Turkey has asserted significant election wins in the major cities of Istanbul and Ankara.

The outcomes represent a major setback for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who aimed to reclaim control of these cities less than a year following his third presidential term victory.

Erdogan spearheaded the campaign to secure victory in Istanbul, his hometown where he previously served as mayor. However, Ekrem Imamoglu, who initially won the city in 2019, secured another triumph for the secular opposition CHP.

Despite Erdogan’s pledge for a new era in Turkey’s megacity of nearly 16 million inhabitants, the incumbent Istanbul mayor appeared poised to garner over 50% of the votes, defeating the AK Party candidate endorsed by the president by a margin of more than 11 points and nearly one million votes. This marked the first electoral defeat for Erdogan’s party nationwide since he ascended to power 21 years ago.

In the capital city of Ankara, opposition mayor Mansur Yavas held a commanding lead with 60% of the votes, prompting him to declare victory even with less than half of the votes counted. Supporters celebrated by blocking major city roads, waving flags, and honking car horns.

Notably, the CHP was also poised to secure victories in several other prominent Turkish cities, including Izmir, Bursa, Adana, and the resort town of Antalya.

Acknowledging the election’s unexpected outcome, President Erdogan, aged 70, addressed supporters in Ankara, emphasizing that it marked a “turning point” rather than an end for his party.

He has consistently relied on the “will of the people” as the basis of his authority, and he assured supporters that he would continue to honor the electorate’s decisions.

Under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s presidency has acquired extensive powers, supplanting the role of the prime minister. However, directly elected mayors in the cities still wield significant influence.

Throughout the election campaign, Erdogan indicated that this would be his final term, as his presidential tenure concludes in 2028. However, critics speculated that a victory might prompt him to amend the constitution to enable another candidacy. Following such a resounding defeat, this prospect seems increasingly improbable.

In contrast, the election outcome marked a significant triumph for the chairman of the CHP, Ozgur Ozel, who commended voters for ushering in a transformative era for Turkey through their historic vote: “They seek to usher in a new political landscape in our nation.”

In Istanbul, crowds gathered outside the Sarachane town hall, situated in one of the city’s oldest districts. They brandished Turkish flags and banners featuring Ekrem Imamoglu’s image alongside that of Turkey’s founding father, Kemal Ataturk, whose portrait adorned the walls of the municipal building.

“I can say that our citizens’ trust and faith in us has been rewarded,” said Mr Imamoglu.

Both he and Mansur Yavas are seen as potential candidates to run for the presidency in 2028.

“Everything will be fine,” Imamoglu supporters chanted as they danced to drums and clarinets in Sarachane, one of Istanbul’s oldest districts.

Istanbul’s incumbent mayor had first used the slogan when he won the city from Mr Erdogan’s party five years ago. Some of the banners in Sarachane used his current slogan, “Full speed ahead”.

“They’re only local elections but the opposition’s victory in big cities is a significant show of force against the ruling party,” Imamoglu supporter Yesim Albayrak, 25, told the BBC.

Mehmet Bankaci, aged 27, expressed to the BBC the necessity for change in Turkey: “If Imamoglu or Mansur Yavas had been the CHP candidates in last year’s presidential election, they would have undoubtedly emerged victorious.”

With a population of nearly 85 million people, Istanbul constitutes one-fifth of Turkey’s populace. Governing the city translates to controlling a substantial portion of Turkey’s economy, encompassing sectors such as trade, tourism, and finance.

Five years ago, Mr. Imamoglu overturned years of AK Party dominance in Istanbul, aided by support from other opposition factions. However, this opposition alliance fractured following the defeat in last year’s presidential election, raising the AK Party’s expectations of overturning his 2019 triumph.

Leading up to Sunday’s election, the outcome was deemed too close to predict, with AK Party candidate Murat Kurum presenting a formidable challenge.

Nevertheless, the ruling party struggled to overcome an economic crisis characterized by inflation rates of 67% and interest rates of 50%.

While significant portions of western, southern, and northern Turkey are now under the control of the opposition CHP, the pro-Kurdish Dem party has secured authority over much of the southeast region.

Mr. Erdogan’s AK Party maintains dominance in central Turkey and achieved more success in areas of the southeast affected by the February 2023 double earthquake, including the cities of Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep.

Speaking from the balcony of his party headquarters in Ankara, he promised to use the four years before the next presidential election to “renew ourselves and compensate for our mistakes”.

His supporters chanted back: “Stand still, this nation is with you.”

About 61 million Turks were eligible to take part in Sunday’s election and more than a million young voters were casting their ballots for the first time. Turnout was estimated at more than 77% across the country’s 81 provinces.