Unai Emery continues to insist Aston Villa are not part of the title battle, even as his former club Arsenal begin to show signs of fragility at the top of the Premier League.
Despite Villa’s impressive form, their head coach has been downplaying their chances.
Their dramatic 2-1 victory over Arsenal on Saturday brought them within three points of the Gunners, with Manchester City completing the current top three.
Villa found themselves in a similarly promising situation two seasons ago, yet ended up finishing fourth and 23 points behind champions City.
With more than a third of the season completed, there is genuine reason to believe Emery’s squad deserve to be taken seriously in this year’s title conversation.
Having beaten both Arsenal and City on home turf—and with nine wins from their last 10 league matches, plus seven consecutive victories across all competitions—the question becomes: why shouldn’t Villa be considered contenders?
Former Tottenham midfielder Danny Murphy highlights one significant concern.
“I don’t see them as title contenders, only because of a lack of strength in depth. But their best XI can beat anybody,” Murphy said.
Arsenal’s loss at Villa Park was their first in 18 matches—since their 1-0 defeat at Liverpool in August—and it noticeably weakens a position that had looked strong at the top.
With only two wins from their previous five league outings, Arsenal supporters may understandably be feeling anxious.
Is it time to start viewing Villa as genuine contenders?
Villa posted an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.27 on Saturday—the highest recorded by any Premier League side against Arsenal this season—and created five major opportunities, including the goals from Matty Cash and Emi Buendia.
They have scored 5.45 more goals (22 total) than their xG of 16.55, and conceded 5.83 fewer (15 allowed) than their xGA of 20.83 so far this season.
Expected goals against reflects how many goals a team would typically concede based on the quality of chances created against them.
Damian Vidagany, Villa’s director of football operations and Emery’s trusted right-hand man, wrote on X after the recent 1-0 win over Wolves that it made no difference if Villa scored “from the moon”—the key thing was collecting points.
Buendia is now joint top Premier League scorer for Villa with Donyell Malen on four goals, while Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers and Cash each have three—showing the team is not depending on a single goalscorer.
Even if Villa are outperforming their expected numbers at both ends of the pitch, few would argue they don’t merit their lofty league position.
Since March, no side has claimed more Premier League victories than Villa.
“I am not thinking in it [the title],” Emery stated. “I know 38 matches is very difficult. We are not a contender. If we were in game 35, perhaps we can speak differently.
“Three points gives us a lot of confidence and it gives us a lot of feelings together about how we are doing in this way. The table, we are feeling better about it than two months ago.
“[I am] so proud of how we are responding and how we focus on each match, also in Europe. The players are the protagonists.”
This is a stark contrast to their early-season troubles, when they failed to win any of their first six games—including a Carabao Cup exit to Brentford.
Villa did not score in the league until matchday six, a 1-1 draw with 10-man Sunderland, but since late September they have earned 13 wins from 15 matches.
Emery admits this run of form is as good as he could have imagined, especially considering they sat third from bottom after leaving the Stadium of Light on 21 September.
He added: “How we are now, I am so proud of the players, how they are taking the challenges we are sending in the dressing room. But it is the reality, the reality is everything we are achieving, but the reality as well is the difficulties we are going to face.
“The Premier League is very difficult and our target in 38 matches, we will see it, but of course now we are feeling good and feeling strong and feeling comfortable in the position we are.”
