The average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice rose to ₦30,435 in March 2026, largely driven by global oil shocks linked to tensions involving Iran, according to a report by SBM Intelligence.
In its Jollof Index Q1 2026 report, the firm stated that the 19.4 per cent increase over six months highlights mounting pressure on Nigerian households, as rising fuel prices continue to push up transport costs across food supply chains.
The report attributed the surge to escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in late February, which drove global crude oil prices above $110 per barrel within weeks.
“After US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, Brent crude spiked from the low-$70s to above $80 within days and then climbed to nearly $120 over the following month. For the Nigerian household, the Strait of Hormuz might as well lie at the end of the street.
“By mid-March, petrol in Lagos had nearly doubled to ₦1,325 a litre, and Abuja stations were posting ₦1,367. Diesel, the lifeblood of logistics, topped ₦1,500. Transport fares tripled on some routes,” it revealed.
The report noted that despite being an oil-producing nation, Nigeria remains heavily reliant on imported refined fuel, making it vulnerable to global price shocks.
According to SBM Intelligence, the Jollof Index — which tracks the cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice for a family of five — serves as an indicator of real household inflation.
“The national average cost of cooking a pot of jollof for a family of five rose 19.4 percent to ₦30,435,” it added.
This rise now places the cost at over 40 per cent of Nigeria’s minimum wage, underscoring the severity of the affordability crisis.
Across major cities, the impact varied but remained significant. Abuja recorded some of the highest prices, with Wuse II market reaching ₦36,750, while Lagos experienced the sharpest monthly increase of over 23 per cent. Port Harcourt saw the steepest six-month rise at 55.1 per cent.
The report linked these increases to higher logistics costs, inadequate infrastructure, and insecurity along food supply routes. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed headline inflation rose to 15.38 per cent in March, while month-on-month inflation climbed to 4.18 per cent.
Food inflation remained elevated, particularly in rural areas where transportation challenges worsened price pressures.
The study also highlighted coping strategies adopted by Nigerians, including reducing portion sizes, substituting protein sources, and switching from gas to charcoal for cooking.
“I use smoked dry fish now. Meat is too expensive,” a Lagos housewife told researchers.
Many households, it added, now purchase food in smaller quantities, skip meals, or rely on backyard farming to manage rising costs.
Comparatively, the report noted that while Nigeria’s food prices continue to rise sharply, Ghana has experienced some stabilisation despite facing similar global pressures.
“Stripped of currency illusions, Nigeria’s jollof pot now costs $21.93 — up from $14.49 in 2023. The index hit 151.3 in March 2026, its highest ever. Food inflation isn’t just rising, it’s hardening fast,” the report stated.
SBM Intelligence concluded that the external shock has exposed deeper structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s economy, including dependence on fuel imports, weak logistics systems, and insecurity in agricultural regions.
“The jollof pot has become the most honest ledger of policy failure and household resilience,” it noted, calling for urgent reforms such as investment in transport infrastructure, strategic reserves, and agricultural development to mitigate future shocks.